پرتفوی سرمایه گذاری در شرایط عدم اطمینان برای استفاده از منابع گاز طبیعی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|49193||2011||11 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||7947 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Computers & Chemical Engineering, Volume 35, Issue 9, 14 September 2011, Pages 1827–1837
Numerous reasons including lower carbon and sulfur emissions have led to the rapid growth of natural gas (NG) demand. However, more than one-third of world NG reserves are stranded, i.e., either remote (e.g., offshore) or in regions with saturated markets. This reality makes the investment decisions complex and uncertain for NG field developers. In this study, we consider the case of a company that wishes to develop a stranded natural gas reserve for some potential nearby markets under uncertain prices of crude oil and feed gas, and demands of liquefied NG (LNG), compressed NG (CNG), and gas-to-liquid (GTL) products. We present a 2-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear program (MILP) that yields maximum-ENPV (expected NPV) decisions on production capacities, market allocations, and delivery vessels. The small model size allows us to consider many stochastic scenarios in our scenario-based approach. We illustrate our approach using several examples.