یک ترانسفورماتور مدل قطع متغیر با زمان برای ارزیابی ریسک عملیاتی انلاین
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|50034||2011||8 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||6533 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, Volume 33, Issue 3, March 2011, Pages 600–607
The failure probabilities of system components may vary with changes in the operating conditions. Performing a probabilistic risk assessment in real-time is challenging, since component failure probabilities are difficult to predict. Accordingly, this paper introduces a delayed semi-Markov process that incorporates real-time data from advanced sensors, as a means of efficiently calculating time-varying or condition-based failure probabilities. To demonstrate the feasibility of the procedure, a time-varying transformer outage model with numerical examples is presented. In the proposed technique, an analytic random model is developed to accommodate the impact of real-time dissolved gas analysis data, as well as other conditions pertaining to the failure probabilities of system components.