روند معمول تصادفی، چرخه مشترک، و عدم تقارن در نوسانات اقتصادی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|51657||2002||23 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||9303 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 49, Issue 6, September 2002, Pages 1189–1211
This paper investigates the nature of U.S. business cycle asymmetry using a dynamic factor model of output, investment, and consumption. We identify a common stochastic trend and common transitory component by embedding the permanent income hypothesis within a simple growth model. Markov-switching in each component captures two types of asymmetry: Shifts in the growth rate of the common stochastic trend, having permanent effects, and “plucking” deviations from the common stochastic trend, having only transitory effects. Statistical tests suggest both asymmetries were present in post-war recessions, although the shifts in trend are less severe than found in the received literature.