دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 55949
عنوان فارسی مقاله

تجزیه و تحلیل سری های زمانی عملکرد سیستم های فتوولتائیک: فصلی بودن و تلفات عملکرد

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
55949 2015 13 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Analysis of photovoltaic system performance time series: Seasonality and performance loss
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Renewable Energy, Volume 77, May 2015, Pages 51–63

کلمات کلیدی
سیلیکون کریستالی؛ فیلم نازک؛ تنزل؛ تلفات عملکرد؛ تجزیه فصلی
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله تجزیه و تحلیل سری های زمانی عملکرد سیستم های فتوولتائیک: فصلی بودن و تلفات عملکرد

چکیده انگلیسی

In this work, the seasonality and performance loss rates of eleven grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems of different technologies were evaluated through seasonal adjustment. The classical seasonal decomposition (CSD) and X-12-ARIMA statistical techniques were applied on monthly DC performance ratio, RP, time series, constructed from field measurements over the systems' first five years of operation. The results have shown that the RP of crystalline silicon (c-Si) technologies was higher during winter. This was also the case for the copper–indium gallium-diselenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe) technologies but with lower seasonal amplitude. The amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology exhibited a different seasonal profile, with high RP during summer and autumn and low during winter. In addition, the trends extracted from the application of CSD and X-12-ARIMA on three-year, four-year and five-year RP time series were used to estimate linear performance loss rates. A comparison between standard linear regression (LR), CSD and X-12-ARIMA has shown that CSD and X-12-ARIMA resulted in higher rates overall for c-Si, 1.07 and 0.93%/year respectively, but with significantly less uncertainty than LR. Lastly, it was shown that X-12-ARIMA provided statistical inference in the presence of outliers and produced model residuals that were uncorrelated, in contrast to CSD.

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