دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 56457
عنوان فارسی مقاله

تاثیر پیش بینی عدم قطعیت قدرت باد بر روی یکپارچه سازی بازار انرژی بادی در اسپانیا

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
56457 2015 16 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Impact of wind power uncertainty forecasting on the market integration of wind energy in Spain ☆
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Applied Energy, Volume 159, 1 December 2015, Pages 334–349

کلمات کلیدی
عدم قطعیت انرژی باد؛مدل مخلوط گوسی چندمتغیره ؛ ادغام بادی - طراحی بازار
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله تاثیر پیش بینی عدم قطعیت قدرت باد بر روی یکپارچه سازی بازار انرژی بادی در اسپانیا

چکیده انگلیسی

The growing share of electricity production from variable renewable energy sources increases the stochastic nature of the power system. This has repercussions on the markets for electricity. Deviations from forecasted production schedules require balancing of a generator’s position within a day. Short term products that are traded on power and/or reserve markets have been developed for this purpose, providing opportunities to actors who can offer flexibility in the short term. The value of flexibility is typically modelled using stochastic scenario extensions of dispatch models which requires, as a first step, understanding the nature of forecast uncertainties. This study provides a new approach for determining the forecast errors of wind power generation in the time period between the closure of the day ahead and the opening of the first intraday session using Spain as an example. The methodology has been developed using time series analysis for the years 2010–2013 to find the explanatory variables of the wind error variability by applying clustering techniques to reduce the range of uncertainty, and regressive techniques to forecast the probability density functions of the intra-day price. This methodology has been tested considering different system actions showing its suitability for developing intra-day bidding strategies and also for the generation of electricity generated from Renewable Energy Sources scenarios. This methodology could help a wind power producer to optimally bid into the intraday market based on more accurate scenarios, increasing their revenues and the system value of wind.

خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.