ارزیابی مجدد ادغام بازارهای برق اروپا: تجزیه و تحلیل هم انباشتگی بخشی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|57321||2016||19 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||12599 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Economics, Volume 53, January 2016, Pages 132–150
This study extends existing literature on the assessment of electricity market integration in Europe, by developing and testing hypotheses on the convergence of electricity wholesale prices, and adopting a time-varying fractional cointegration analysis. In addition, the potential impacts of some special events that may affect system capacity (new interconnection, market coupling, increase in share of intermittent generation) on spot and forward markets are considered and evaluated. Daily spot prices from February 2000 to March 2013 of nine European electricity spot markets (APX-UK, APX-NL, Belpex, EPEX-FR, EPEX-DE, IPEX, Nordpool, Omel and OTE) and month-ahead prices in four markets (French, British, German and Dutch) from November 2007 to December 2012 are investigated. Results show that unit root tests, which are generally used in the literature to test market integration, are inadequate for assessing electricity spot market convergence, because spot prices are found to be fractionally integrated and mean-reverting time series. Furthermore, spot price behaviour and their association with different markets change over time, reflecting changes in the EU electrical system. One-month-ahead prices, by contrast, were found to have become more resilient to shocks and to follow more stable trends.