ریسک گریزی و ترکیب تکنولوژی در بازار برق
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|57437||2013||9 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||8020 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Economics, Volume 40, November 2013, Pages 866–874
This article analyzes the effect of risk and risk-aversion on the long-term equilibrium technology mix in an electricity market. It develops a model where firms can invest in baseload plants with a fixed variable cost and peak plants with a random variable cost, and demand for electricity varies over time but is perfectly predictable. At equilibrium the electricity price is partly determined by the random variable cost and the returns from the two kinds of plants are negatively correlated. When the variable cost of the peak technology is high the return of peak plants is low but the return to baseload plants is high. Risk-averse firms reduce the capacity of the riskiest technology and develop the capacity of the other, compared to risk-neutral firms. In the particular case where a risk-neutral firm invests heavily in baseload technology and only sparely in peak capacity, a risk-averse firm would invest less in baseload, increase peak capacity, and increase total installed capacity.