رویکردANP فازی برای انتخاب محل کشتی سازی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|6122||2009||8 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||5656 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Expert Systems with Applications, Volume 36, Issue 4, May 2009, Pages 7992–7999
It is the first duty of investors to transform financial resources into investments in the right places at the right times and earn benefits. However, where to invest and how to invest is always a risky and complicated problem. The decision which will be made under a variety of factors might result in a terrible mistake if it is not felicitous. It is necessary to utilize scientific methods when deciding to make these types of complicated investments which can cause large financial losses. Analytical network process (ANP) can show us the best alternative based on different criteria from a variety of alternatives. However, the network structure should model the actual in a very good way. Analytical network process will give us the best result in span after the correctly built network structure’s comparisons are made correctly. It is important to design the structure flexibly in this work in order for it to lead to improvements. Shipyard location is selected in this work which provides reference to investors based on numerical and solid essences. At the end, the study has received a successful application with the help of expert people and the correct fuzzy analytical network process’s success over the criteria which have a close relationship with each other.
Nowadays countries are focusing on heavy industry in order to develop and bloom. Although its importance is known in Turkey, the shipbuilding industry, which is a heavy industry branch, hasn’t made a thrust yet. But the private sector has recognized the financial benefit of this area and has started making the necessary investments. On this, the sudden development of the market, inexpensive labour in Turkey, closeness to the market, geographical practicability and incentives from the government for the development of the region has effects. The analysis of the inner and outer environment is very important in order to compete with the current market conditions. A firm will be able to take make successful decisions based on its ability to analyze the current situation and forecast for future situations. Enterprises want to utilize their resources efficiently and this is only possible if experience is supported with scientific works. During the stage of making a decision, a lot of criteria should be considered and a decision should be made based on these criteria. As criteria and alternatives increase, it becomes very hard and almost impossible for a human brain to analyze the relation between all the criteria and alternatives and make a decision. At this point it is necessary to use a technique of making a decision with a lot of criteria. Saaty has developed analytic network process (ANP) management and brought it into the literature. By using ANP, it can consider objective and subjective evaluation criteria. ANP has been used in tens of different decision making stages and its success has been accepted. It has found different areas of application which includes recruiting, forecasting of NBA results, the decision of building a barrage and the decision made by the United States to build a global missile defence system. During their study Meade and Presley (2002) argued about using ANP as a model in selecting the suggestions for R&D. In addition to this, Mohanty, Agarwal, Choudhury, and Tiwari (2005) study an application of fuzzy ANP along with fuzzy cost analysis in selecting R&D projects. As ANP makes comparisons to get us the needed results, the quality of the information being used and the built structure has a very critical importance. Although ANP is a fine technique, it is weak in eliminating ambiguities. Even though people who make the comparisons are aware of the subject, their different perspectives may result in discrepancies on information. In order to eliminate this ambiguity, it is possible to utilize fuzzy logic methods. Fuzzy logic provides numerical information on the situation where there is no certainty and it helps to get a more realistic result on defining the existence of a relation in between. Some researchers have applied the fuzzy ANP based approach to solve complex decision making problems (Chung et al., 2005, Kahraman et al., 2004 and Karsak et al., 2002). In our study, a network has been formed by using the effective criteria of selecting a location from one of four different shipyard location alternatives in Turkey and a survey has been made by the experts with different experiences, education and who possess work area and information about existent subject. The gathered information’s blur has been cleared with the help of Microsoft EXCEL and the results have been gathered after the transfer of information to the formed network which is called Super Decisions. With this study, the usage of the analytical network process together with fuzzy logic and its success in selecting a shipyard location which is a complex and important problem has been shown. This study can be a guide for investors in using their financial resources in the best way and a reference for the critical decisions that will be made. A new addition to the variety of usage areas in literature has been made and the reliability of the fuzzy analytic network process has increased because of the successful result.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
In this study, ANP has been successfully conducted in the selection of an appropriate location for a shipyard. It has been seen that it was crucial for the decision makers to comprehend fully the desired information in forming mutual comparisons and in appointing the relation levels. It has also been seen that selecting experts on present subject in various experience, information and education branch is one of the most important issues in ensuring the accuracy during the study and the results. In conclusion, the requirement for us to build a shipyard first in which area in order to meet the urgent need of a shipyard in Turkey was defined with this study. This decision has been made under today’s circumstances, so it is quite normal to have different results with the changing conditions in the future. All experts stated that the information they presented could have been quite different 5 years ago. Shipyard selection process – which is a complicated process with many alternatives influencing each others has been completed successfully thanks to ANP method. With the increase in the use of such advanced decision-making methods, the companies will have the chance to make more profitable investments. In future studies, available financial and technological constraints can be added to the system. In addition, a building which would help us decide on the type of shipyard construction can also be constructed and in this way we can reach a more resilient and specific result.