مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی : شواهد از جامعه اقتصادی کشورهای غرب آفریقا (ECOWAS)
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|6336||2013||11 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Economics, Volume 36, March 2013, Pages 637–647
Access to modern energy is believed to be a prerequisite for sustainable development, poverty alleviation and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. However, theoretical models and empirical results offer conflicting evidence on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth that we remain largely unsure of the cause-and-effect nature of this relationship, if indeed a relationship exists at all. This paper tests, in a panel context, the long-run relationship between energy access, and economic growth for fifteen African countries from 1980 to 2008 by using recently developed panel cointegration techniques. We adopt a three-stage approach, consisting of panel unit root, panel cointegration and Granger causality tests to study the dynamic causal relationships between energy consumption, energy prices and growth as well as relationship between electricity consumption, prices and growth. Results show that GDP and energy consumption as well as GDP and electricity move together in the long-run. By estimating these long-run relationships and testing for causality using panel-based error correction models, we found unidirectional long-run and short-run causality. The causality is running from GDP to energy consumption in the short-run, and from energy consumption to GDP in the long-run. There is also evidence of unidirectional causality running from electricity consumption to GDP in the long-run. This study thus provides empirical evidence of long-run and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth for our sample of fifteen countries; suggesting that lack or limited access to modern energy services could hamper economic growth and compromise the development prospects of these countries.
While the availability of modern energy is not by itself a panacea for the economic and social problems facing developing countries, it is now widely recognised that the lack of access to affordable and reliable energy services is a fundamental obstacle to human, social, and economic development. Moreover, the energy poverty is a major impediment to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs),1 since energy services have an important impact on productivity, health, education, potable water and communication services (UNIDO, 2011). The lack of access to modern energy services that are clean, efficient and environmentally sustainable is thus an obstacle to economic growth and sustainable development, poverty reduction and achievement of the MDGs. However, if from both theoretical and qualitative points of view, the role of energy in economic development and growth is obvious, the empirical evidence and the quantitative relationship between energy use and economic growth are a matter of debate. A number of empirical studies using various approaches, time periods, and proxy variables have been conducted on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in different countries but evidences from empirical researches are still mixed and controversial in terms of the direction of the causality and the strength of impact of energy use on economic growth. Even when a relationship is supported by an econometric methodology it is usually weak and has very low explanatory and predictive power. Nevertheless the nature of causality between energy and growth has important policy implications. Thus, it is important to provide empirical evidence on the possible existence of a long-run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for a given location (country or region) or a given sector.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This paper examines the empirical evidence of the relationship between access to modern energy, economic growth and development. For this purpose, recent developments in unit root tests for panel, panel cointegration and causality techniques have been applied to investigate the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, as well as the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth and an additional variable (energy prices) for 15 African countries for the period from 1980 to 2008. As far as the short-run dynamics of data are concerned, our analysis reveals that the economic growth has a positive and statistically significant effect on energy consumption in the short-run in ECOWAS. An increase in real GDP is likely to affect energy demand in several ways: first, at the household level, as per capita income increases, people who are seeking to improve their comfort can spend the extra income earned on additional energy services. Second, economic growth can induce demand for more energy since energy is a major input in the production system. So, an increase in real GDP increases energy consumption in the short-run and this in turn can increase production in real sector. Thus conversely, in the long-run, it is energy consumption which causes the GDP per capita growth in ECOWAS, and the error correction terms are statistically significant. With regard to electricity consumption and GDP per capita, there is no causality in the short run, but in the long-run, an increase in electricity consumption leads to an increase in GDP per capita. The non-correlation between electricity consumption and GDP in the short-term can be attributed to the low access to electricity. But in the long run, improving access to electricity in ECOWAS is important for economic growth.