گسترش گردشگری و توسعه اقتصادی: مورد تایوان
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|6924||2006||9 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||5070 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Tourism Management, Volume 27, Issue 5, October 2006, Pages 925–933
This study examines the causal relationship between tourism expansion and economic development in Taiwan. A Granger causality test is performed following the cointegration approach to reveal the direction of causality between economic growth and tourism expansion. Test results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship and further a bi-directional causality between the two factors. In other words, in Taiwan, tourism and economic development reinforce each other. A discussion follows and managerial implications are identified based on the empirical findings.
Despite the poor global economic performance and the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 in the US, the number of international tourists traveling worldwide reached 715 million in 2002, an increase of 21 million from 2001 for an annual growth of 3.1 percent (World Tourism Organization, 2002). Global tourism receipts were 475.8 billion in US dollars (US$) for 2000 and 462 billion US$ for 2001. Tourist spending, as an alternative form of exports, can contribute to the balance of payments through foreign exchange earnings and proceeds generated from tourism expansion and can represent a significant income source for a national economy (Balaguer & Cantavella–Jorda, 2002). Foreign exchange earnings from tourism can also be used to import capital goods to produce goods and services, which in turn leads to economic growth (McKinnon, 1964). Other economic benefits derived from tourism activity include tax revenues, employments and additional sources of income (Archer, 1995; Belisle & Hoy, 1980; Davis, Allen, & Consenza, 1988; Durbarry, 2002; Khan, Seng, & Cheong, 1990; Uysal & Gitelson, 1994; West, 1993). It is generally assumed that tourism expansion should have a positive contribution to economic growth. Taiwan has been recognized as an export-oriented economy (Ghartey, 1993; Jin, 1995). However, the tourism industry may be another major contributing factor toward Taiwan's economic growth. The 2002 annual statistics of Tourism (Tourism Bureau, 2003, p. 24) reported that Taiwan's tourism receipts accounted for 4.2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 1996. This figure exceeded the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP, thereby making tourism one of the major industries in Taiwan. The Taiwanese government has lately noticed a crucial role of tourism expansion in economic development and is eager to promote tourism internationally. In 2002, the Doubling Tourist Arrivals Plan (DTAP) was introduced as part of the National Development Plan named “Challenge 2008”, which was designed to reinforce Taiwan's overall economy. The goal of the DTAP is to double the number of foreign tourists arriving in Taiwan in order to stimulate the overall production value of the domestic economy and enliven the job market.1 To ensure the successful implementation of the DTAP, the Tourism Development and Promotion Committee (TDPC) was upgraded and the Premier of Taiwan designated as its convener. Although the tourism industry has grown significantly in Taiwan, tourism researchers have not paid much attention to the empirical assessment of contributions of the tourism sector to Taiwan's economy. This study aims to answer the following two questions. First, is there a long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism expansion and economic growth in Taiwan? Second, if a stable long-run relationship exists, what is the direction of a causal relationship between these two variables? In other words, is tourism expansion an “engine” of Taiwan's economic development or the other way around? The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the relationship between economic development and tourism expansion; Section 3 describes data and analyses used; Section 4 focuses on specification of econometric models; Section 5 discusses the results of hypotheses and presents managerial implications; finally, the article concludes with a summary of the main points and suggestions for future research.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
There is a vast amount of research on the economic impact of tourism activity in the tourism literature. Major economic benefits derived from tourism activity include foreign exchange earnings, employments, and income (Archer, 1995; Belisle & Hoy, 1980; Davis et al., 1988; Durbarry, 2002; Khan et al., 1990; Mill & Morrison, 2002; Uysal & Gitelson, 1994; West, 1993). The results of previous studies seem to be based on the assumption that tourism activity will affect the local or national economy positively. Despite the belief in tourism-led economic development, not many studies have empirically investigated a causal relationship between tourism and economic growth. Oh (2005) argued that it is necessary to investigate the hypothesis in numerous destination countries for the purpose of generalization. This study was conducted to contribute to the body of literature in respect to Taiwan. To detect the causal relationship, we performed a Granger causality test following the cointegration approach, which has been the typical method favored in studies of this kind. The current study discovered a reciprocal relationship between tourism expansion and economic development with Taiwanese data. Note that empirical results on the causal relationship between the two variables have been inconsistent in the past. The Spanish data showed that tourism growth caused economic development in one direction (Balaguer & Cantavella-Jorda, 2002); Greece had a bi-directional causality between international tourism earnings and economic development (Dritsakis, 2004); and the South Korean data revealed a one-way relationship from economic growth to tourism expansion (Oh, 2005). The mixed results indicate that the direction of causality between economic growth and tourism may be determined by various factors. We speculated the size of the national economy and the level of openness of the country as well as the level of travel restrictions as feasible factors brought about differences between Taiwan and South Korea. In addition to these factors, the degree of dependence on tourism, tourism destination life cycle, and the level of economic development may be considered as some other determinants. In future studies, tourism researchers may want to compare multiple countries using the above variables as intervening factors between economic development and tourism activity and draw a concrete conclusion as to tourism-led economic growth theory. A careful empirical analysis, such as the one shown in this study, is desirable for any country that may want to focus on the tourism industry as part of its national economic development policy. The analysis will verify if the common notion on the tourism-led economic growth is applicable to that particular country. Based on the results, decisions on the tourism related matters can be adjusted or altered such as the overall tourism budget, approval of private or governmental tourism projects, the scale of the worldwide promotion as a travel destination, and so forth.