توسعه اقتصادی و تخریب منابع: درگیری و سیاست
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|6936||2007||23 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Volume 41, Issue 2, June 2007, Pages 107–129
The paper develops a model that shares common features with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. It is used to address two questions. First, what are the future prospects of a green gross domestic product (GDP); should we be concerned with resource degradation or not; and, to what extent, and under which conditions? Secondly, which policies are more effective than others? Model closures are simulated using different specifications of exogenous variables. Further, alternative policies are treated: human capital, price incentives, property rights and poverty reduction. In the African context, we show that while the prospects of environment-friendly economic development, i.e. a rising green GDP, are weak in the medium-run, under certain structural conditions there is a range of effective policies that resolves the conflict between economic growth and resource degradation, thus contributing to a rising green GDP.
Land degradation, deforestation and desertification can seriously reduce the productivity of land, and thereby jeopardise economic growth. The conflict between environmental sustainability and economic growth is nowhere more obvious than in developing countries. In these countries, the overwhelming majority of people are dependent for their economic growth on activities that are tied to land, such as Agriculture, Forestry and Livestock, or, briefly, the AFL sectors. Four adverse interdependencies are commonly acknowledged. First, the inaccessibility of poor farmers to modern technical knowledge and information leads to misuse of natural resources  and . Second, farm-gate prices in most developing countries are far below their world market levels. This discourages farmers’ incentives for soil conservation and encourages soil depletion ,  and . Third, lack of well-defined private property rights over natural resources lead to overexploitation and degradation of these resources  and . Fourth, pressured by their poverty, poor people adopt short-term survival strategies, and overuse land resources, thus giving environmental protection a low priority . In spite of these negative developments, it has not been established for badly affected developing countries whether economic growth net of land degradation is positive or negative. In other words, if the notion of green gross domestic product (GDP) can be quantified, it is important to establish whether it is on the increase or decrease. This paper focuses on modelling the trade-off between economic growth and resource degradation. We take the Sudan as a case study, a country very rich and diverse in land potential but equally so with ecological risks.1 One concern will be to build a model capable of establishing, quantitatively, future prospects of green GDP in the Sudan, and identifying whether there are reasons for alarm or not, and to what extent. The answers will depend on the model specification and postulated conditions. A second concern is to develop a modelling framework capable of evaluating alternative policies for reducing the above trade-off. We will show that the prospects for resource friendly economic development in the Sudan—a rising green GDP—are weak in the medium-run, but that there are some corrective mechanisms that improve the situation in the longer run. There is also a range of policy choices that could effectively reduce the trade-off between growth and degradation. There are a few policy models that explore the links between economic growth and environment conservation in the context of agriculture and (or) forestry. Those focusing on agriculture include incentives for upland farmers in Indonesia for investing in soil conservation as an alternative to existing methods of cultivation that lead to considerable soil erosion , Others examined the deforesting behaviour of smallholder agriculturists in rural Nepal as off-farm labour market conditions change in the context of an open access regime . There is also the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Costa Rica in which the effects of economy-wide government policies are traced on development of agriculture and forestry . Some models have assumed a narrower scope in studying the environmental effects of stabilisation and structural adjustment programmes for Thailand  and Malawi . The key conclusion drawn from a review of this literature is that the policy modelling of trade-offs between growth and conservation in the development context emphasises the need for joint appraisals of economic incentives, property rights, population and poverty pressures and modern farming knowledge. However, available models do not go beyond focussing on this one aspect to the exclusion of others. The models also emphasise the importance of land substitution between agriculture and forestry and the importance of relative prices in determining the outcome, supporting the use of general equilibrium models in modelling the problem. This paper represents a step in the directions mentioned above. The economy-wide model we develop thus incorporates the joint appraisal of economic incentives, property rights, poverty pressure and the role of modern farming knowledge in the determination of sustainable growth. The model elaborates on links between agriculture, forestry, livestock, the AFL sectors, and the rest of the economy. The model gives also due emphasis to relative prices in influencing the allocation of resources, and shares common features with CGE models. Section 2 introduces the model, while Section 3 describes the structure of the model. Section 4 includes remarks on estimation and calibration of the model, and Section 5 reflects on the results under alternative closures and decompositions. Section 6 uses the model to appraise alternative policies to reduce the trade-offs between growth and conservation. Section 7 concludes the study.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
Many developing countries are confronted with a possible trade-off between economic growth and environmental conservation. What is the extent of this trade-off? And which policies are more effective then others in achieving both objectives? The objectives of the current study were to model the relationships pertaining to these questions, and provide answers in the context of the largest African country, the Sudan. The paper develops a model that shares common features with computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Model closures were simulated using different specifications of exogenous variables. Alternative policies were then simulated and evaluated. The focus has gone to four alternative policies: investment in human capital, greater price incentives, institutionalising property rights, and poverty reduction. Economic development involves a shift of land from traditional uses such as subsistence cultivation, forestry, and grazing to modern uses such as irrigation and mechanisation. The reallocation of land leads to more production, but, at the same time, it involves more degradation loss. We show for the Sudan that the prospects of environment-friendly economic development, i.e. a rising green GDP, are weak in the medium-run. However, under certain structural conditions, there is a range of effective policies that resolves the conflict between economic growth and resource degradation, thus contributing to a rising green GDP. In particular, the policy of investment in human capital and training programmes appear to be the most effective in combating the trade-off, and resolving the conflict between growth and environment. This policy is followed by price incentives and income transfers to maintain basic needs. The policy for promoting greater security in property rights favours growth at the cost of environment. We also found that the model specification which takes the economy-wide model, and incorporates the effects of changing relative prices based on world market price trends, represents a very workable assessment of the trade-off between growth and environment. In this connection, the observed trends in relative prices at the world level at the turn of the century (1990–2000) seem to favour environment, but the effect is marginal. Further research can be directed towards new applications and more case studies. Adaptation and application of the proposed model to other developing countries will likely demonstrate the flexibility and usefulness of the model in addressing the trade-off between growth and environment, and can contribute to substantiating policy conclusions that emphasise human resource development, poverty reduction, and price incentives in advancing both of these development goals.