توسعه اقتصادی، ادغام بازار انرژی و تقاضای انرژی: مفاهیم برای شرق آسیا
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|6985||2013||7 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||5710 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Strategy Reviews, Available online 7 January 2013
This paper uses a general method of moment regression technique to estimate an energy demand function with a dataset covering 71 countries between 1965 and 2010. The estimated results show that countries undergoing rapid economic growth may show relatively higher income and price elasticities in the long run. The higher income elasticities and lower price elasticity in the short run of rapid growing countries may impose pressure on energy demand in the domestic and international markets. Energy market integration can help to reduce such pressure by smoothing energy demand through lowering its income elasticity and creating a flexible energy market through increasing its price elasticity. These findings have important implications for forecasting energy demand and promoting international cooperation in East Asia.
Price and income are two primary factors shaping the energy consumption of a country, and estimation of the elasticities of these two factors is thus essential for defining the energy demand function. In previous empirical studies , , ,  and , the income and price elasticities of energy products have been widely estimated with either single-country time-series data or cross-country data. However, there is no general agreement on representative values of the income and price elasticities, and in particular it is still not clear why the magnitude of these elasticities may differ across countries with disparate economic development levels and institutional arrangements. Using a comprehensive survey of quantitative studies on country-specific energy consumption, Dahl  shows that the demand for energy is price inelastic and slightly income elastic at the national level but there is no clear evidence that the developing world should be less price elastic or more income elastic than the industrialized world. In contrast, Brenton  and Ferguson et al. , when using cross-country energy consumption data to estimate different energy demand functions, find that the price elasticity for energy is usually higher in the poor countries than in the rich countries, and that the income elasticity for energy declines with rising income. To explain the above inconsistent findings on the estimated energy demand elasticities, many studies including Maddala et al. , Garcia-Cerrutti , Lowe , Bernstein & Griffin , and Yoo  attempt to incorporate regional characteristics, such as country-specific energy consumption preferences and different energy-usage technology in production, into the estimation of the energy consumption function. These studies provided some interesting results with respect to the relationship between economic growth, policy making and energy consumption by providing new estimates of the cross-country income and price elasticities for energy. However, they could not explain two important phenomena : (1) estimated energy consumptions using the cross-country data generally lack price elasticity, and they are significantly different from those in country-specific studies; (2) estimated energy consumptions using the single-country data usually show different trends over different time periods. These two phenomena raise the interesting question of whether economic development and the institutional arrangements associated with the energy market, which are the two important features associated with the different phases of economic development and income levels of a country, can be identified as affecting the income- or price-energy consumption relationships. This paper attempts to measure the income and price elasticities of energy consumption in a country and to link these elasticities to the country's economic development and institutional arrangements related to Energy Market Integration (EMI). Contributing to the previous literature examining the relationship between energy consumption and income, such as Asafu-Adjaye  and Lee and Chang , our study is the first to highlight that the economic development stage and its related industrialization and urbanization may reshape the energy consumption behavior of a country by affecting its income and price elasticities. In addition, we also demonstrate the role that EMI may play in changing a country's energy demand when the country passes through different economic development stages. Implications from this study shed light on two policy issues in the East Asian Summit (EAS) region. The first policy issue is that since many EAS countries are less developed and will industrialize in the future, a projection of the relationship between energy demand and industrialization is critical in choosing how to deal with the potential energy supply challenge. The second policy issue is that the study provides the method for valuing the costs of, and benefits from, participating in EMI. An incentive for EAS countries to participate in EMI is that regional integration may help to secure the energy supply for sustainable economic growth whilst reducing income disparity in the region. However, to what extent this goal can be achieved and how much benefits each country can obtain from participating in EMI depend on the impact of regional integration on the income and price elasticities of energy demand. The paper is organized as follows. Section 2 summarizes the structural change in energy demand of some major countries. The analysis shows that there are often significant structural changes in energy demand when a country moves from a lower economic-development stage to a higher one, and different institutional arrangements associated with the energy market may impose different impacts on such structural changes in energy demand. Section 3 develops a dynamic panel data model, which incorporates economic growth stages and EMI into the estimation of the energy demand function. Section 4 presents the estimated results which show that countries in different stages of economic development, and with different involvement in EMI, would demonstrate different levels of demand for energy consumption. Section 5 presents conclusions and policy implications for East Asia.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This study uses a GMM regression technique to estimate a cross-country demand function for energy products, using 45-year long data from 71 countries, and examines the income and price elasticities of energy consumption between 1965 and 2010. The results show that countries with different economic development stages demonstrate different levels of energy demand and thus the associated price and income elasticities. In particular, we found that countries undergoing rapid economic growth may show relatively higher income and price elasticities in the long run. The higher income elasticities and lower price elasticity in the short run of rapid growing countries may increase additional pressure on energy demand in domestic and international markets. EMI can help to reduce such pressure by smoothing domestic energy demand through lowering its income elasticity and creating a flexible energy market through increasing its price elasticity. These findings can be used in explaining the recent boom in EAS's demand for energy products. It may also indicate a means of reducing the pressure of energy demand arising from economic growth in the EAS region through strengthening the integration of the regional energy market, which has important implications for forecasting energy demand and promoting international cooperation in the EAS region. At least two policy implications can be drawn. First, this study may offer policy makers a chance to better understand EAS countries' future paths of energy demand. Current energy outlooks for the EAS region, such as Kimura , often assume a linear relationship between economic growth and energy demand, using historic trends. This will create a serious problem for projections: countries with low/high historic energy consumption levels will stay at a low/high path, which is unrealistic. However, as shown in Figs. 1 and 3, in the advanced stage of economic development, the growth of energy demand would slow down. Thus, the change of relationship will change the regional energy outlooks significantly. Earlier developing countries, like China may demand less energy in the future while later developing countries, like Cambodia, may demand more. Therefore, compared with outlooks without considering future structural changes, the region could be relatively relaxed about the demand from China, but it needs to pay more attention to later developing countries. Also, the later developing countries need to prepare for their booming energy demand and consequential environmental impact. Improvement of supply capacity in the later developing countries thus should be a policy priority. In contrast, earlier developing countries should switch focus from the supply side to the demand side, such as energy saving and green energy. Second, since EMI can smooth demand and increase the flexibility of energy markets, it should be promoted, in particular, among economies that are undergoing industrialization and commercialization. Rapid economic growth may lead to an increase in energy demand of a country. Given the constraint of energy supply, this may raise prices of energy products in the domestic and international markets, and restrict further economic development. EMI helps to smooth energy demand, however, by decreasing the income elasticities and increasing price elasticities of energy consumption. With increased price elasticity, the economy will be more resilient to price volatility. As a consequence, EMI helps to alleviate the bottleneck of energy shortage faced by countries with rapid economic growth.