حذف فاصله بین آینده نگری و تحقیقات بازار: دغام روش ها برای ارزیابی پتانسیل اقتصادی فناوری نانو
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|76740||2007||18 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||7661 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 74, Issue 9, November 2007, Pages 1805–1822
This paper discusses how to bridge the gap between foresight research oriented to the long-term, and traditional market research oriented to the medium to short term, when applied to an early stage of a technology's life cycle. It proposes using an integrating approach, i.e. a combination of methods and both foresight and traditional market research. A mix of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented in a case study. This helps to overcome the deficits of some qualitative foresight methods and quantitative methods often used in traditional market research and allows us to examine research results from the different methods applied both on their own and as a group. In the absence of a single fully-fledged and accepted economic approach, this paper argues that combined market research and foresight modules are the best possible approach for analyzing the economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology. In the future, similar applications of such market foresight modules may be useful, for example, as elements of foresight. They will also be useful in studies of emerging technologies (e.g. converging technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0) where traditional market research does not produce a realistic market assessment.