دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 76752
عنوان فارسی مقاله

خوش بینی بیش از حد در میان کارشناسان در ارزیابی و آینده نگری

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
76752 2004 23 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
The over-optimism among experts in assessment and foresight
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 71, Issue 4, May 2004, Pages 341–363

کلمات کلیدی
تمرینات آینده نگری؛ روش دلفی؛ کارشناسان خود امتیاز؛ خوش بینی کارشناس
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله خوش بینی بیش از حد در میان کارشناسان در ارزیابی و آینده نگری

چکیده انگلیسی

It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.

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