دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 76763
عنوان فارسی مقاله

درس هایی از استفاده از سناریو برای آینده نگری استراتژیک

کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
76763 2010 6 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید محاسبه نشده
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 77, Issue 9, November 2010, Pages 1513–1518

کلمات کلیدی
آینده آرمانی؛ درس آینده نگری؛ دولت و آینده نگری های شرکت های بزرگ - ، واکنش های آلرژیک به آینده نگری
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله درس هایی از استفاده از سناریو برای آینده نگری استراتژیک

چکیده انگلیسی

Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF) would argue, a conscious attention to the organization's vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. Having promoted foresight on six continents for a wide range of governments, corporations, and non-profit organizations, we have developed lessons on the design and set-up of foresight efforts, their use and follow-through. Lessons include: Scenarios using ‘aspirational futures’ should include expectable, challenging, and visionary alternatives; beware of and understand ‘allergic reactions’ to foresight given some individuals', particularly leaders', psychological preferences; foresight is most effectively done by and for top leadership but foresight for units or regions of the organization can also be successful; to get the most value, it is important to err on the side of boldness and vision in developing scenarios; foresight efforts create a ‘safe space’ for exploring challenging situations; associations as collections of companies or professionals have unique foresight needs including elected leadership that rotates every year, and the need to communicate the results of foresight efforts to their members effectively; government and corporations have more similarities than differences in foresight, but companies have more resources and can move quickly to develop and use the foresight.

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