|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|90189||2018||18 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||14683 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Economic Modelling, Volume 70, April 2018, Pages 543-560
We examine the macroeconomic determinants of the volatility of commodity futures (including agricultural commodity futures, metal futures and oil futures) in two emerging commodity markets â China and India. The macroeconomic variables used include both domestic and international macroeconomic variables that gauge economic environment, monetary policy and financial market information. We use a recently proposed GARCH-MIDAS model which jointly incorporates the daily price volatility and low-frequency macroeconomic variables. The model decomposes the volatility series into short- and long-run components, thereby enabling us to test whether the macroeconomic variables can determine the long-run variance. We find that there exists a long-run volatility component in the commodity futures, and most of the tested low-frequency macroeconomic variables are positively related to the long-run variance of commodity futures. Our results suggest that both domestic and international macroeconomic information plays an important role in determining the price volatility of the emerging commodity futures.