دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 93551
کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
93551 2018 39 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید 12432 کلمه
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Terms-of-trade cycles and external adjustment
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : International Review of Economics & Finance, Volume 54, March 2018, Pages 103-122

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چکیده انگلیسی

We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shifts—identified with a Markov-switching approach—for a large set of countries during the period 1960–2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about ½ of the magnitude of the price shock—indicating a significant volume offset—and a full adjustment within 3–4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings were a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.

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