|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|93551||2018||39 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||12432 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : International Review of Economics & Finance, Volume 54, March 2018, Pages 103-122
We study the process of external adjustment to large terms-of-trade level shiftsâidentified with a Markov-switching approachâfor a large set of countries during the period 1960â2015. We find that adjustment to these shocks is relatively fast. Current accounts experience, on average, a contemporaneous variation of only about Â½ of the magnitude of the price shockâindicating a significant volume offsetâand a full adjustment within 3â4 years. Dynamics are largely symmetric for terms-of-trade booms and busts, as well as for advanced and emerging market economies. External adjustment is driven primarily by offsetting shifts in domestic demand, as opposed to variations in output (also reflected in the response of import rather than export volumes), indicating a strong income channel at play. Exchange rate flexibility played an important buffering role during booms, but less so during busts; while international reserve holdings were a key tool for smoothing the adjustment process.