|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|93824||2018||37 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||11064 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Asian Economics, Volume 54, February 2018, Pages 39-52
The real exchange rate of the Chinese yuan vis-Ã -vis the U.S. dollar appreciated by 4.6% per year from 2005 to 2015 after a period of stability (1996â2004). The fast appreciation may appear to be a classic case of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. China during this period was on a path of manufacturing-led rapid growth and technological catch-up. As expected, there was a large difference in total factor productivity growth between the tradable and nontradable sectors, which contributed to real exchange rate appreciation. However, a decomposition of the annual 4.6% real exchange rate appreciation reveals that the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect was relatively small at 1.2 percentage points. The more important factor was real appreciation in the price of tradables (a rise in the price of Chinaâs tradables relative to U.S. tradables) at 4.4 percentage points. This patternâa modest Balassa-Samuelson effect and a large real appreciation in the price of tradablesâwas also present in Japan and Central and Eastern European transition economies, all of which experienced long-term real exchange rate appreciation during their high growth periods. Chinaâs recent case adds to evidence that the magnitude of the Balassa-Samuelson effect is usually modest and does not account for the bulk of observed rapid real exchange rate appreciation in high growth economies.