چشم انداز انرژی جهانی تا 2035 با ملاحظات استراتژیک برای وابستگی های درونی عرضه و تقاضای انرژی آسیا و شرق میانه
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|9384||2013||13 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||11900 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Strategy Reviews, Volume 2, Issue 1, June 2013, Pages 79–91
This study quantitatively projects energy supply and demand in Asia and other regions of the world through 2035, focusing on the relationship between Asia and the Middle East. An integrated group of energy economics models, including a macroeconomic model, an energy supply and demand model and a technology assessment model, are used to show that the Middle East will be able to respond to an expected substantial increase in Asian fossil fuel demand. Therefore, continuing appropriate investment in resource development in the Middle East will be indispensable to ensure stability in global energy supply and demand. The Middle East is expected to focus more on its fossil fuel exports to Asia amid a decline in exports to North America and Europe. The large energy consumption and production regions are expected to become more and more interdependent.
Global energy demand has been expanding rapidly; it expanded 2.4-fold from 5000 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 1971 to 11,700 Mtoe in 2010. The Asian region has increased its energy demand remarkably over recent years, accounting for 70% of the growth in global energy consumption since 2000. The rapid energy demand expansion in the region, poor in oil and natural gas resources, has caused major problems in and outside the region. For example, China, with the largest energy demand in the world, has taken all possible measures to secure and diversify its fossil fuel procurements, including constructing international oil pipelines, acquiring overseas oil interests, and expanding Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and pipeline-based natural gas imports, while introducing more nuclear and renewable energy. Energy demand, particularly fossil fuel demand, is predicted to continue expanding in the world including Asia. How the unevenly distributed fossil fuel resources will be provided to the points of demand, in a stable manner, is expected to become an increasingly important challenge. Energy demand is also increasing in the Middle East. Demand growth in this region requires attention because it can undermine the export capacity needed to meet the growing demand in other regions, including Asia. For example, the Middle East consumed only 4% of its domestic oil production in 1971, but the ratio rose to 24% by 2010. As the energy demand in this region is expected to continue its rapid growth in the future, expanding the production to maintain the export capacity becomes a crucial issue for the future global energy supply. Global energy demand projection has been performed by many organizations, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) , U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)  and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) . There are similarities and dissimilarities, reflecting the different viewpoints and assumptions. For example, IEA's long-term oil demand projections have always been lower than those of OPEC and U.S. EIA for both Asia and the World, resulting in smaller oil production forecasts. But they agree in the view that in the central cases (IEA's New Policies Scenario (NPS), OPEC's Reference Case and U.S. EIA's Reference Case), global and Asia’s fossil fuel demand shows a continuing growth, requiring a steady growth in production. BP's outlook  has a different view of the Middle East's future crude oil production when compared to the other outlooks. According to BP, due to a slump in global oil demand and an increase in unconventional non-OPEC oil supply, oil production from OPEC will decline in the next decade. If this is true, it will greatly affect the financial situation of the Middle Eastern oil exporting countries. In the longer term, however, BP forecasts that global oil demand will surge again to surpass the increase in unconventional oil production, and oil production growth from the Middle East will be back by 2030 to reach a level 30% larger than that in 2010. To sum up, different outlooks have different backgrounds and assumptions, but they broadly share the same vision. Demand for fossil fuels, especially oil and natural gas, will continue to grow in the future mainly in non-OECD countries in Asia. The Middle East will play a key role to increase production to meet the growing demand. Unconventional supplies will expand mainly in North America, but demand for conventional oil and natural gas from the Middle East will increase in the long term. But some questions arise: Will the increase in exports to Asia be strong enough to sustain the economic growth of the Middle Eastern countries? What are the possible impacts of unconventional resources development in Asia as well as in North America? What happens if Asian countries take strong actions towards low-carbon societies and reduce fossil fuel consumption? What are the differences between the future evolution of crude oil and natural gas exports to Asia? As an attempt to answer these questions, we analyzed in this study the future energy supply and demand situations up to 2035, making use of a group of numerical models. This study focuses on the relationship between Asia and the Middle East in order to draw the implications for the fossil fuel exporting countries. Based on thorough reviews of the latest energy policies this study also provides detailed projections, especially for energy demand in Asian countries. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 led to changes in nuclear policies in Japan and other countries, which will greatly affect future fossil fuel demand. These latest policy changes are not always fully reflected in the outlooks mentioned above. For example, the latest version of U.S. EIA’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) was published in September 2011, and it forecasts Japan’s nuclear power generating capacity to increase from 48 GW in 2008 to 55 GW in 2020 and 61 GW in 2035 in the Reference Case. New nuclear power plant (NPP) construction in the near future, however, is no longer realistic in Japan, as the government has announced its intention to reduce dependence on nuclear energy . IEA’s NPS assumes 70 GW nuclear capacity in 2020 in China, presumably based on the nation’s most ambitious target that has ever been announced. The Chinese government, however, stopped granting licences for new NPP construction for more than one year and a half, in the wake of the Fukushima accident. This will cause a delay in nuclear power development. According to the media , China now sets the target at 58 GW in 2020, instead of 70 GW. Since most of the planned new NPPs are already under construction and granting licences for starting new ones has been resumed, there will be no problem for meeting the new target of 58 GW. A total of 70 GW by 2020 should be regarded as unrealistic. In this study we reviewed thoroughly the latest energy policies of each country as well as the global energy supply and demand situation, and made detailed projections especially for Asian and Middle Eastern countries. Our Reference Scenario (described below) proposes an outlook for the future energy supply and demand situation in line with past trends, unlike IEA's NPS. Our Advanced Technology Scenario assumes the maximum diffusion of energy saving and CO2 reducing technologies, but is not as ambitious as IEA's 450 Scenario, which is a sort of backcast from the target of halving global GHG emissions by 2050. Based on these two scenarios, we analyzed future energy situations on a country-by-country basis, especially focusing on Asian and Middle Eastern countries and the developing relationship between them.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
In this study, we used a set of quantitative analysis models, including econometric-type demand forecast models and bottom-up type technology assessment models, to estimate energy demand in Asia and other regions of the world through 2035 and assessed future fossil fuel supply and demand. Over a medium to long term, global energy demand will increase, with growth concentrating in Asia, particularly non-OECD Asian nations such as China, India and ASEAN countries. How to address a sharp future increase in energy demand will become an increasingly important challenge for Asian countries. These countries have promoted renewable energy and nuclear power as well as energy conservation. As indicated by this study, however, they are set to expand fossil fuel demand despite their maximum efforts to diffuse non-fossil energy. Cheap and abundant coal resources hold the key to securing a higher energy self-sufficiency rate for Asia. But Asia has refrained from depending excessively on coal in consideration of limits on coal reserves and output as well as the problem of NOX, SOx and CO2 emissions. Therefore, it will be indispensable for Asian countries to expand oil and natural gas imports from the rest of the world. Since the oil crises in the 1970s, Asia has always recognized its excessive dependence on energy sources from the Middle East as dangerous. Therefore, Asian countries will try to diversify energy supply sources in consideration of their energy security in expanding fossil fuel imports. As for natural gas, particularly, Asia will try to expand imports from Australia, the FSU region, Africa and North America as well as the Middle East. Regarding oil, however, Asia has no choice but to expand oil imports from the Middle East considerably. In this sense, Asia will inevitably become more dependent on the Middle East over the long term. By 2035, China and India will become by far the largest importers of oil due to the rapid increase in demand. Indonesia will also emerge as a new large crude oil importer. But in the case of LNG, Japan will remain the largest importer and South Korea will be the third largest after China, because these countries will be more dependent on LNG than on pipeline imports. Although the fossil fuel trade between the Middle East and Asia will increase, the Middle East’s share of Asian total imports will decline from 77% in 2010 to 65% in 2035 for oil, and from 52% to 30% for natural gas. While North America is going in the direction of energy self-sufficiency and no large growth in European demand is expected, Asia’s presence will grow as the major fossil fuel export destination. Thus, Asia’s share in the Middle East’s exports will rise from 75% to 87% for oil, and from 45% to 80% for natural gas. In this context, the Middle Eastern countries should recognize the great economic risk of their high dependence on fossil fuel export revenue and measures should be taken to alleviate it. Even though fossil fuel prices are expected to rise and exports to Asian countries are expected to increase, fossil fuel exports alone cannot sustain the high economic growth that the Middle Eastern countries experienced in recent years. Thus, maximum efforts to diversify the economic structures are indispensable for the Middle Eastern hydrocarbon exporting countries. This is especially true for the LNG exporting countries such as Qatar and Oman, because of the risks related to LNG exports as mentioned above. Without the success of these efforts, it will be difficult for those countries to continue to expect high economic growth. Asia needs the diversification of energy supply for its energy security, while the Middle East needs the diversification of the revenue structure to avoid economic crisis. Nevertheless, the interrelationship between the two regions will become more and more important. In order to secure energy supply, Asia must encourage the Middle East to appropriately invest in oil resources development. By doing so, Asia will increase its contributions to the Middle East’s fossil fuel exports, inevitably exerting greater influences on national finance in Middle Eastern countries. While continuous investment in developing fossil fuel resources in the Middle East will be indispensable for Asia, prospects for stable, continuous demand are required for resource-rich countries in the Middle East to continue an appropriate level of investment. To this end, Asia and the Middle East must share a common vision of future energy supply and demand, and recognize the importance of a sustained resource development. In order to continuously enhance the mutual understanding over a long term, the two regions should seek to further deepen their interrelationship, through bilateral cooperation in fostering industries, developing human resources, promoting technical assistance, etc. Our future work will include the estimation of impacts of energy policies and technology options. As stated above, Asian and Middle Eastern countries are promoting various kinds of energy policies such as diffusing nuclear power, renewable energy and energy saving technologies. Some of the technologies have a large room for diffusion with relatively low costs, while others do not. Thus, it would be important to estimate the potentials, costs and benefits of various technologies and economic impacts of energy policies in long-term perspectives as presented in this study.