دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 94492
کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
94492 2017 18 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید 12988 کلمه
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Journal of Commodity Markets, Volume 6, June 2017, Pages 32-49

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چکیده انگلیسی

This paper studies the market phenomenon of non-convergence between futures and spot prices in the grains market. We postulate that the positive basis observed at maturity stems from the futures holder's timing options to exercise the shipping certificate delivery item and subsequently liquidate the physical grain. In our proposed approach, we incorporate stochastic spot price and storage cost, and solve an optimal double stopping problem to give the optimal strategies to exercise and liquidate the grain. Our new models for stochastic storage rates lead to explicit no-arbitrage prices for the shipping certificate and associated futures contract. We calibrate our models to empirical futures data during the periods of observed non-convergence, and illustrate the premium generated by the shipping certificate.

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پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.