تاثیر سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی در چین بر تعدیل اشتغال در تایوان: مدارک و شواهد از داده کارفرما -کارمند همسان شده
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|9709||2013||12 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||محاسبه نشده|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Japan and the World Economy , Volumes 25–26, January–March 2013, Pages 68–79
Using a unique matched employer–employee dataset on Taiwanese manufacturing, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment in China on domestic employment adjustments controlling for firm and worker heterogeneity as well as for potential endogeneity of firms’ expansion in China. Our findings suggest that workers employed at firms with higher levels of investment in China are more likely to leave the firm, compared with workers at firms with zero or lower levels of investment in China. We provide evidence that foreign expansion in China decreases worker employment security at parent companies, particularly for low-skilled workers. Employment adjustments through employer-to-employer transitions are found to be highly associated with wage losses, with the strongest wage effects for low-skilled workers who shift employment between industries. Moreover, we find no evidence that FDI in China contributes to skill upgrading at parent companies.
Economists have long discussed the impacts of outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on the home labor market. As multinational enterprises (MNEs) play an important role in the international division of labor, a number of studies have investigated whether employment at a parent firm and its foreign affiliates are complementary or substitutes. Since the relationship is determined primarily by how multinationals reallocate the operations between parent and affiliates in response to wage differences across countries, this subject is an empirical issue and the evidence is far from conclusive. Studies have generally documented that jobs in high-income affiliates are complementary with parent jobs, while jobs in low-income affiliates are substitutes for parent jobs. However, contradictory results have been reported across different contexts and time periods. More recently, the availability of employer–employee matched data has created a new wave of research investigating the role of globalization on domestic labor market dynamics. Yet the evidence is relatively scant. Menezes Filho and Muendler (2011) use linked employer–employee data from Brazil to examine how workers’ labor market transitions are affected by trade liberalization. They find that trade openness is associated with more displacements and fewer accessions at employers in comparative-advantage industries and at exporters. Utilizing a Danish matched worker-firm dataset, Hummels et al. (2010) find that workers displaced from outsourcing firms experience greater wage declines, and that less-educated workers suffer larger and more consistent losses than highly-educated workers. In contrast, based on a German linked employer–employee dataset, Becker and Mundler (2008) report that foreign expansion significantly reduces the probability of domestic worker separation and conclude that hindering MNEs from engaging in FDI may lead to greater job destruction at home. Contributing to this trend, we utilize unique employer–employee data to investigate how foreign expansion in China affects workforce adjustment in Taiwan and how the impact may vary across skill levels. Taiwan presents an interesting case for at least two reasons. First, compared with other developed economies, a large proportion of Taiwan's outward direct investment goes to China, concentrated mainly in the manufacturing sector.1 This trend is even more significant after the government replaced its policy of ‘patience over haste’ with that of ‘active opening and effective management’ in 2001. The share of total outward investment that is directed toward China increased from 17 percent in 1995 to a record 63 percent in 2005.2 Second, there is evidence that the Taiwanese labor market is more dynamic than in most Western economies as Taiwan is a small, open economy with weak unions and limited employment protection.3 Therefore, it is of interest to examine adjustment costs in the labor market associated with foreign expansion by multinational enterprises. This paper contributes to the literature in two respects. First, it covers a period of rapid expansion of FDI to China, after the Taiwanese government relaxed restrictions on investment items and allowable FDI to China in 2001. We control for the potential endogeneity of foreign expansion in China by using the policy change as an instrument. Second, we use a unique employer–employee matched dataset to explore the effects of foreign expansion in China on individual labor-market transitions. In addition to worker separations, one striking feature of our data is that we are able to identify employer-to-employer (EE) flows and to distinguish transitions within-industry and between-industry, which allows us to generate a more complete picture of labor-market adjustments.4 Information on wages before and after the job change is also available.5 As compelling evidence supports the claim that it is more costly for workers to shift employment between than within industries,6 by distinguishing between- and within-industry EE transitions we can better understand the costs of labor adjustment. To our knowledge, this study uses more comprehensive measures of worker flows than have been previously employed to investigate the effects of outward FDI on short-run labor-market dynamics. Our empirical findings on listed companies suggest that FDI in China is significantly negatively associated with parent employment growth and significantly positively associated with worker separation. Even accounting for observable and unobservable characteristics of firms and workers, our results on worker-level analysis reaffirm the prominent view in the public debate that foreign expansion in China threatens domestic employment stability in Taiwan, particularly for less-skilled workers. With regard to adjustment costs, employment shifts through employer-to-employer transitions are found to be strongly associated with wage losses. The adverse domestic wage effect of expansion in China appears to be the strongest for low-skilled workers who shift jobs between industries. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we summarize related literature. Section 3 provides background on outward FDI policy toward China. In Section 4, we describe the data and measures. Section 5 describes the empirical strategy and empirical specification. In Section 6, we analyze the empirical results. Conclusions follow in Section 7.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This paper examines the effects of FDI in China on employment adjustments at parent companies in Taiwan. In contrast to the previous literature that focused on employment levels at the parent and foreign affiliates, we investigate short-run labor-market dynamics at the parent firm, including employment growth, hiring, separations, and employer-to-employer transitions. We find fairly consistent evidence for the Taiwanese manufacturing sector. Controlling for the potential endogeneity of FDI in China, our empirical findings for Taiwanese listed companies suggest that foreign expansion in China is significantly negatively correlated with parent companies’ employment growth and significantly positively correlated with worker-separation rates. We find no evidence that FDI in China has any significant association with skill upgrading at parent companies. The results of worker-level analyses confirm our findings from the firm level. After controlling for heterogeneity among workers and firms, we find that individuals employed at firms with higher levels of investment in China are more likely to leave the firm or move to another employer, compared with workers at firms with zero or lower levels of investment in China. These results strongly suggest that FDI in China threatens the employment security of parent-firm workers in Taiwan, particularly low-skilled workers. Employment adjustments in response to the shift of labor demand through employer-to-employer transitions are also found to be associated with wage losses, with the strongest effects for low-skilled workers who shift employment between industries. We acknowledge some limitations of our analysis. First, due to lack of information on the reasons for job moves, we are unable to distinguish between voluntary and involuntary labor adjustments. Nor can we distinguish between moves into unemployment and out of the labor market. Second, our results pertain to short-run employment adjustments; identification of appropriate data and investigation of long-run effects would be valuable. Finally, as the impact of outward FDI may extend to other non-multinational companies, the coverage of our sample can be enlarged. Another potentially interesting avenue for future work is to examine the impact of other aspects of globalization, such as trade and technological change, on labor-market dynamics. Our results provide strong support for the notion that affiliate activity in a low-income country substitutes for domestic employment in Taiwan, and are consistent with evidence found for a number of other countries. Our findings also provide insight into the employment adjustments associated with firms’ FDI decisions. From a policy perspective, our results suggest that governments should give more attention to the cost of labor adjustments attributable to relocation of domestic production to lower-cost countries. Short-run labor-market adjustment costs may offset gains from globalization. Programs to mitigate these adjustment costs through unemployment insurance or improving reemployment chances may be worthwhile.