|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|97104||2017||20 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||11871 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Transportation Research Procedia, Volume 23, 2017, Pages 848-867
This paper is the first to study to what extent decision rules, embedded in disaggregate discrete choice models, matter for large-scale aggregate level mobility forecasts. Such large-scale forecasts are a crucial underpinning for many transport infrastructure investment decisions. We show, in the particular context of (linear-additive) utility maximization (RUM) and regret minimization (RRM) rules, that the decision rule matters for aggregate level mobility forecasts. We find non-trivial differences between the RUM-based and RRM-based transport model in terms of aggregate forecasts of passenger kilometers, demand elasticities, and monetary benefits of transport policies. This opens up new opportunities for policy analysts to enrich their sensitivity analysis toolbox.