اقتصادهای پیشرفته و بازارهای در حال ظهور: ردیابی رانندگان هماهنگ سازی چرخه کسب و کار
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی|
|97861||2018||16 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید|
نسخه انگلیسی مقاله همین الان قابل دانلود است.
هزینه ترجمه مقاله بر اساس تعداد کلمات مقاله انگلیسی محاسبه می شود.
این مقاله تقریباً شامل 10430 کلمه می باشد.
هزینه ترجمه مقاله توسط مترجمان با تجربه، طبق جدول زیر محاسبه می شود:
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Available online 3 February 2018
What are the divers of business cycle synchronization within and between advanced and emerging economies at the sector level? This question is addressed by analysing international co-movements of value added growth in a multi-sector dynamic factor model. The model contains a world factor, region factors, sector factors, country factors, and idiosyncratic components. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods for 9 disaggregated sectors in 5 developed economies (G5) and 19 emerging economies for the 1972â2009 period. The results suggest that, while there exists a common âregional business cycleâ in the G5, fluctuations in sectoral value added growth are dominated by country-specific factors in the emerging markets. Despite that, the international factor (the sum of world and sector factors) is more important than the region factor, suggesting that the emerging markets are more synchronized with the G5. A simple regression shows that (i) the world factor would be more important the larger the share of agriculture in output; (ii) in more open economies the sector factor is more important in explaining sectoral value added growth fluctuations; (iii) the region factors is more important the richer and the less volatile the economy. Finally, a comparison of the variance of sectoral value added growth accounted for by each factor from the pre- to the post-globalization period shows convergence of the business cycles within the G5 and EM, respectively. The changes in the contribution of the world, sector and region factor are due to changes in the importance of those factors within sectors. However, for the emerging markets, the fall in the importance of the country factors is dominated by changes in the structural composition of the economies. Therefore, the evolution of the structural composition in the emerging markets could be an important driver for more synchronized business cycles at the regional and international level.