پیش بینی تکنولوژی در چشم انداز توسعه بخش انرژی در لهستان تا سال 2030. مطالعه دلفی به عنوان یک عنصر پیش بینی تکنولوژی
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|984||2009||12 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||5560 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 76, Issue 3, March 2009, Pages 327–338
The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006–2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years. The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.
A growing number of energy-related foresight activities worldwide clearly reflects the importance of issues related to energy sector. Such projects have been performed at global , continental ,  and  and national level , ,  and  either as strictly energy oriented foresight projects or as a part of broader foresight activities. The driving forces for the actions in particular countries and regions stemmed from the need for security of energy supply, especially in places where own fuel resources are poor or are rapidly diminishing. The common elements of these projects are usually as follows: • energy demand issues, • emerging energy technologies, • new transportation solutions, • reduction of greenhouse gases emission, • reduction of air pollution emissions, • implementation of renewable energy sources, • energy saving practices. Some differences observed in a foresight approach result from high specificity of countries and regions covered by the foresight actions. In Poland, technology foresight study for energy sector has been undertaken for the first time.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
The technology foresight study for energy sector has been undertaken for the first time in Poland. The successful implementation of such projects in other countries as well as the intention of applying a different method of data acquisition to be used in creating strategies and plans of national energy sector development were basic premises for applying this method. Among many methods commonly applied in such future-oriented studies, Delphi survey is nowadays perceived as a very valuable tool, especially when uncertain or incomplete knowledge about the investigated area exists. The two-round Delphi survey carried out allowed gaining important information of both qualitative and quantitative character. In many cases, the results of the survey were in accordance with findings obtained from other foresight methods applied in this project. The Delphi study findings turned out to be an invaluable source of information during the scenario building and the elaboration of corresponding roadmaps, especially in the time estimation process. The study also provided additional information on various side aspects related to the Delphi developments including the impact they exert or the actions necessary for their realization. The knowledge gained from the whole foresight study should give a basis for creating a proposal of future Polish energy sector structure, for defining the tasks needed to ensure the long-term competitiveness of Polish energy systems and for creating sound basis of national energy security.