|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی||تعداد کلمات|
|99844||2017||31 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید||8915 کلمه|
Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 40, April 2017, Pages 175-189
This paper provides a full characterization of inflation rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of 78 advanced and emerging economies between 1989 and 2014. It also assesses the performance of inflation rate forecasts around business cyclesâ turning points. As expected, that inflation forecasts start to mirror the actual data as the forecast horizon draws to a close, particularly in advanced economies. The mean forecast error is positive and larger than one point when we pool all countries, but this masks inter-group differences. Moreover, we find evidence for biasedness, inefficiency or information rigidities, with a clear tendency for âforecast smoothingâ. Accounting for cross-country informational linkages is important: forecasters fail to adjust their inflation forecasts quick enough in response to domestic news and news from abroad. Finally, during recession episodes forecasts generally appear to be inefficient. The same holds true for recoveries.