دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 99844
کد مقاله سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی ترجمه فارسی تعداد کلمات
99844 2017 31 صفحه PDF سفارش دهید 8915 کلمه
خرید مقاله
پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.
عنوان انگلیسی
On the rationality and efficiency of inflation forecasts: Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 40, April 2017, Pages 175-189

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پیش نمایش مقاله

چکیده انگلیسی

This paper provides a full characterization of inflation rate forecasts using the mean values from Consensus Economics for a sample of 78 advanced and emerging economies between 1989 and 2014. It also assesses the performance of inflation rate forecasts around business cycles’ turning points. As expected, that inflation forecasts start to mirror the actual data as the forecast horizon draws to a close, particularly in advanced economies. The mean forecast error is positive and larger than one point when we pool all countries, but this masks inter-group differences. Moreover, we find evidence for biasedness, inefficiency or information rigidities, with a clear tendency for “forecast smoothing”. Accounting for cross-country informational linkages is important: forecasters fail to adjust their inflation forecasts quick enough in response to domestic news and news from abroad. Finally, during recession episodes forecasts generally appear to be inefficient. The same holds true for recoveries.

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پس از پرداخت، فوراً می توانید مقاله را دانلود فرمایید.