رابطه علی بین مصرف زغال سنگ و رشد اقتصادی در کره

This paper investigates the short- and long-run causality issues between coal consumption and economic growth in Korea by applying modern time-series techniques. It employs annual data covering the period 1968–2002. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on error-correction model are presented. The overall results show that there exists bi-directional causality running from coal consumption to economic growth with feedback. This means that an increase in coal consumption directly affects economic growth. Thus, in order not to adversely affect economic growth, Korea should endeavor to overcome the constraints on coal consumption. Moreover, the study lends support to the argument that an increase in real income gives rise to increased coal consumption.

In the past two decades, numerous studies have been conducted to examine the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The overall findings show that there is a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth.1 However, the fact that there exists a strong relationship between energy consumption and economic growth does not necessarily imply a “causal” relationship. The relationship may very well run from energy consumption to economic growth, and/or from economic growth to energy consumption. Thus, there have been a number of studies to deal with causality tests between energy consumption and economic growth.2 In a summary of the literature on the causal relationship between the consumption of energy, including coal, and economic growth, there are a number of evidences to support bidirectional or unidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth. Despite the expanding literature on the study of causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth, to the best of the author’s knowledge, there have been few studies specifically addressing the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth. Recently, Yang [3] found unidirectional causality running from economic growth to coal consumption in Taiwan. In the course of last three decades, Korea has undergone dramatic economic growth. Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has grown at an average annual rate of 7.4% between 1968 and 2002. The manufacturing sector, in particular, has expanded at a high speed. This fast economic growth has boosted the consumption of energy, including coal, rising at an annual rate of about 8.8% during the same period, which implies that energy consumption has been doubled in every 8 years. The figure far exceeds the annual growth rate of real GDP. Korea does not export coal but import 92.1% of coal consumed in 2002. Korea, dependent on the importation of 97% of its total energy demand due to a shortage of domestic natural resources, has extended coal supply as a reliable energy source and various projects were initiated for stockpiling energy reserves against national emergencies. Multilateral efforts aimed at alleviating the dependence on oil were made, especially after experiencing the oil shocks of the 1970s. Beginning with the cement industry, industries started to replace oil with coal as much as possible, thereby increasing the share of coal in overall energy consumption. Overall, coal consumption has grown by about 3.9% per annum for the period of 1968–2002. According to BP [4], the growth rate is the second largest in the world. In addition, Korea’s coal consumption level in 2002 was ranked at ninth highest in the world [4]. Thus, the coal supply infrastructure of Korea, a newly industrializing and energy-importing country, is an important ingredient of the economy. In particular, meeting the challenge of climate change in connection with the greenhouse effect may profoundly affect coal consumption [5]. This is because the country’s growth rate of CO2 emissions is now the highest in the world (an annual average of 10% over the period 1990–1995), Korea will have to deal with the climate change problem within the context of international discussions, and any international agreements that are reached will surely have repercussions in Korea itself. Therefore, public policy makers in Korea have shown a great deal of interest in uncovering the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth. This task has become one of the most important ones for Korea in the present and in the near future. However, there has been no empirical work on the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Korea. Therefore, the investigation of the causality issue needs to be carried out. A major question concerning this issue is which variable should take precedence over the other – is coal consumption a stimulus for economic growth or does economic growth lead to coal consumption? Evidence on either direction shall have a significant bearing upon policy [6]. If, for example, there is unidirectional causality running from coal consumption to economic growth, reducing coal consumption could lead to a fall in economic growth. On the other hand, if a unidirectional causality runs from economic growth to coal consumption, it could imply that policies for reducing coal consumption may be implemented with little or no adverse effects on economic growth. And lastly, no causality in either direction would indicate that policies for increasing coal consumption do not affect economic growth. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to investigate the causality between coal consumption and economic growth, and to obtain policy implications from the results. To this end, the author attempts to provide more careful consideration of the causality issues by applying rigorous time-series techniques of Granger-causality to the Korean data. The methods adopted here are in the following fashion. First, stationarity and co-integration are tested; second, error-correction models are estimated to test for the Granger-causality; finally, the F-test and t-test are performed to gauge the joint significance levels of causality between the two variables. Through the analysis, instead of arbitrarily choosing a lag length, Akaike’s information criterion described in [7] is employed to select the optimum lag. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 presents an overview of the methodology adopted here. Section 3 explains the data employed and reports the empirical findings. Some concluding remarks are made in the final section.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for Korea, and to obtain policy implications of the results. To this end, causality tests have been performed using modern techniques in the time series literature and adapted in a framework where both traditional and additional channels of causality could be exposed. In summary, time series properties of the data have been analyzed by way of unit root and co-integration tests before applying Granger-causality tests and ECMs were estimated to test for the direction of Granger-causality. This paper has brought evidence from Korea, in the causality between coal consumption and economic growth as well as the direction of causality. These are interesting features of the paper. The results of this study showed that there are bidirectional short-run causality from coal consumption to economic growth, unidirectional long-run causality from economic growth to coal consumption, and bidirectional strong causality from coal consumption to economic growth. Overall, the author found that causality runs from coal consumption to economic growth with feedback effect. This is consistent with Glasure and Lee’s [17] research which dealt with the causal relationship between the consumption of energy, including coal, and economic growth in Korea. First, this study lends support to the argument that economic growth stimulates coal consumption. Intuitively, increased real GDP requires further coal consumption [18]. Second, the finding of causality from coal consumption and to economic growth has important implications for policy analysts and forecasters in Korea. A high level of coal consumption leads to high level of real GDP, though there are many other factors contributing to economic growth, and coal is only one of such factors. Coal now constitutes a critical factor in sustaining the well-being of the Korean people as well as the nation’s economic growth. Moreover, production in industries such as electricity generation, and iron and steel manufacture demands a substantial amount of coal. Therefore, the constraints on coal consumption may restrain the economic growth in Korea. In order not to adversely affect economic growth, efforts must be made to encourage government and industry to overcome the constraints as a strategy toward advanced development in the long haul. In other words, a coal consumption growth policy should be adopted in such a way that it stimulates economic growth. According to the national long-term coal supply plan, coal supply capacity is expected to increase from 42.9 million tons of oil-equivalent (MTOE) in 2000 to 61.5 MTOE in 2010 to meet the projected coal demand. This study generates confidence in the plan to invest more in the coal supply infrastructure. Whilst causal linkages between coal consumption and economic growth this analysis conclusively demonstrates and the implications of the results may be unique for Korea, it should be stressed that the techniques employed in this study can be readily applied to time series data from other countries and extended to other multivariate systems where coal consumption and real income are exposed to be determined by other economic factors such as net fixed capital stock, employment, exports etc. Furthermore, such an analysis could uncover the structural channels by which coal consumption and real income are inherently causal.