مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در اقتصادهای آسیایی: یک تجزیه و تحلیل جامع تر با استفاده از داده های پانل

This paper applies the most recently developed panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction models to re-investigate co-movement and the causal relationship between energy consumption and real GDP within a multivariate framework that includes capital stock and labor input for 16 Asian countries during the 1971–2002 period. It employs the production side model (aggregate production function). The empirical results fully support a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP and energy consumption when the heterogeneous country effect is taken into account. It is found that although economic growth and energy consumption lack short-run causality, there is long-run unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. This means that reducing energy consumption does not adversely affect GDP in the short-run but would in the long-run; thus, these countries should adopt a more vigorous energy policy. Furthermore, we broaden the investigation by dividing the sample countries into two cross-regional groups, namely the APEC and ASEAN groups, and even more important results and implications emerge.

How to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions yet, all the while, maintain stable economic growth has not just given rise to heated rhetoric but has also been one of the major concerns of energy and environmental protection policy in every corner of the world. The 1997 Kyoto protocol commits industrialized nations that have ratified the treaty to reducing their emissions of greenhouse gases, principally CO2, by around 5.2% below their 1990 levels over the next decade. Proponents have reached a consensus that this is a necessary step, not least because high-growth, industrialized economies produce nearly 40% of the world's human-generated CO2, a figure that has accelerated in recent years. But, opponents contest such a policy out of fear that the imposition of a set of such so-called ‘unrealistic’ goals would be detrimental to the global economy, not to mention economic development at home, and subsequently lead to serious unemployment. By extension, many argue that even a shortage of energy would adversely affect income (Masih and Masih, 1998). Following the work of Stern, 1993 and Stern, 2000, Oh and Lee, 2004a and Oh and Lee, 2004b, Ghali and El-Sakka (2004) and Beaudreau (2005) who argue that energy is an essential factor in production, this paper makes it mark in the extant literature by empirically examining long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between energy consumption and real GDP. It does so based on the aggregate production function. And, rather than the bivariate model attempted in numerous earlier studies, the present research employs a multivariate model with energy consumption (EC henceforth), real GDP (GDP henceforth), labor force (LB henceforth) and real capital stock (K henceforth) for 16 Asian economies from 1971 to 2002. This study includes Iran, Jordan and Syria which have not been investigated in most, if not all, recent studies (see Table 1). We also determine the relationship between EC and GDP within a multivariate framework when capital stock and labor input are controlled for; this relationship could feasibly run in either or both directions regardless of whether it is transitory or permanent. For our panel of sample countries, we use a cointegration test which,1 when compared to the cross-section approach, is more powerful and allows us to increase the degrees of freedom. We then use the fully modified OLS (FMOLS henceforth) technique to estimate the cointegration vector for heterogeneous cointegrated panels. This enables us to correct the standard OLS for bias induced by endogeneity and serial correlation of the regressors. Furthermore, we specify and estimate a dynamic vector error correction model (VECM) that is appropriate for heterogeneous panels and that distinguishes between short-run and long-run causality. Finally, we explore different group issues that are of concern to the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and with the results of this study, we are able to examine the deeper characteristics that determine the most efficient policies with respect to energy use.

Determining the exact relationship between energy consumption and economic activity in Asian economies when capital and labor input are controlled for is certainly of considerable interest to policymakers, economists and other academic circles alike. Although earlier studies have usually investigated the relationship between energy and GDP from either the demand side or the production side models, in this paper, we argue that energy is indeed an essential factor in production. For this reason, we use the production side model to empirically re-examine long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between energy consumption and real GDP in a multivariate model comprised of 16 Asian economies from 1971 to 2002. We do not just investigate one economy but rather divide the subjects, where possible, into two groups of countries, APEC and ASEAN members. Since the time series data may yield unreliable and inconsistent results with the short time spans of typical datasets, we employ new heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction model techniques to re-investigate the relationship between energy consumption and GDP across the 16 Asian countries. On the basis of the short-run and long-run dynamics of energy consumption and GDP, as concerns the energy-income relationship in these Asian economies, we refute the neutrality hypothesis that has previously been advanced. Energy consumption is found to Granger cause GDP in the long-run, but not vice versa. There is no short-run or long-run causal relationship running from GDP to EC. In other words, high EC tends to come with high GDP, but not the reverse. Thus, given the explicit unidirectional causality, the implication is that energy conservation plans may be implemented but with some effect on income in Asian economies; unquestionably, this reflects the fact that energy serves as an engine of economic growth and that changes in energy consumption usually affect economic activity. Furthermore, we break our panel down to investigate the group effects between two organizations, APEC and ASEAN. There is a strong indication of long-run causality from EC to GDP but fully through the ECT in the long-term in both the APEC and ASEAN groups, but there is no causality from GDP to EC in either the short-run or long-run. Our results provide solid support in favor of current as well as past changes in energy consumption that have had a significant impact on change in GDP in Asian economies. This means that continuous energy use does generate a continuous rise in output. Thus, GDP is fundamentally driven by energy, but while energy conservation may be feasible, it will compromise economic growth. What we should remember is that when a great deal is consumed, terrestrial energy will eventually be exhausted, and the energy resources of the world will be something of the past. Therefore, to avoid excessive shocks to economic development, the urgent task for authorities in Asian economies should be to establish well planned, long-term energy policies.