مطالعه پانل مصرف انرژی هسته ای و رشد اقتصادی

This study examines the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth for sixteen countries within a multivariate panel framework over the period 1980–2005. Pedroni's (1999, 2004) heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, nuclear energy consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force with the respective coefficients positive and statistically significant. The results of the panel vector error correction model finds bidirectional causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short-run while unidirectional causality from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth in the long-run. Thus, the results provide support for the feedback hypothesis associated with the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth.

In light of the recent concerns over greenhouse gas emissions produced from fossil fuel energy sources, the high volatility of oil and gas prices on international markets, and the geopolitical landscape faced by countries dependent on foreign energy sources, the discussion of nuclear energy is a timely one. According to the Energy Information Administration, electricity generation from nuclear power is projected to increase from roughly 2.7 trillion kilowatt hours in 2006 to 3.8 trillion kilowatt hours in 2030 in response to the concerns mentioned. More specifically, as stated in the International Energy Outlook 2009, “higher fossil fuel prices allow nuclear power to become economically competitive with the generation from coal, natural gas, and liquids despite the relatively high capital and maintenance costs associated with nuclear power plants. Moreover, higher capacity utilization rates have been reported for many existing nuclear facilities”.1 As noted by Vaillancourt et al. (2008), long-term energy and environmental strategies to meet growing global energy demands have embraced the transition from fossil fuels to renewable or other non-greenhouse gas emitting energy sources. Nuclear energy is an important energy source in the development of such long-term energy and environmental strategies. Nuclear energy can address global energy needs in regions of the world where energy demand growth is rapid, known gas and oil reserves are likely to be exhausted in a few generations, alternative resources are scarce, energy supply security is a priority, and the reduction in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions is critical (Fiore, 2006 and Toth and Rogner, 2006).2 However, the prospects for growth in nuclear energy are faced with ongoing controversies, namely, operational safety, radioactive waste disposal, proliferation risk of nuclear material along with the public perception and acceptance of nuclear power (Toth and Rogner, 2006). An important component in the discussion on nuclear energy as an option for sustainable development is its impact on economic growth. Though the literature on the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is relatively well established, the empirical studies related to nuclear energy consumption and economic growth are rather limited.3 According to Vaillancourt et al. (2008, p. 2297), there are 441 nuclear power reactors in operation in thirty-one countries around the globe. Given the availability of data and consistency with respect to the time horizon of the study, sixteen of the thirty-one countries are included in this study.4 Twelve of the sixteen countries which include Belgium, Canada, Finland, France, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K., and the U.S. are categorized as high income by the World Bank. The remaining four countries are categorized as upper middle income (Argentina), lower middle income (Bulgaria), and low income (India and Pakistan). Of these countries, the percentage of total electricity production from nuclear energy varies considerably from a high of 79.13% in France to a low of 6.5% in Argentina. Specifically, this study extends the existing literature with the inclusion of more countries than in previous studies as well as examining the causal relationship within a multivariate panel cointegration/error correction framework which combines the cross-section and time series data while allowing for heterogeneity across countries. Indeed, consideration of the implications of nuclear energy for economic growth is relevant in the discussion of the global energy portfolio that can address the current and future economic and environmental concerns about the world's energy supply. Section 2 briefly overviews the hypotheses related to the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth along with a summary of the previous studies on the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. Section 3 discusses the data, methodology, and empirical results. Concluding remarks are given in Section 4.

The growing concerns over greenhouse gas emissions, the recent volatility associated with oil and gas prices, the uncertainty surrounding the political stability of oil producing countries, and the dependency on foreign energy sources have revitalized interest in the role of nuclear energy as a viable energy source. Even with the benefits of reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, providing a low cost and stable supply of electricity, and decreased dependency on foreign energy sources, both policymakers and the general public still have some reservations with respect to the production and consumption of nuclear energy. These reservations about nuclear energy stem from the perceived risks which include operational safety, the disposal of radioactive waste, and the risk of proliferation of nuclear material are reasonable concerns. However, to address the growing global energy demands, long-term energy and environmental strategies must consider nuclear energy as an important energy source in the discussion of the world's energy portfolio. The objective of this study was to provide additional information in the discussion of the role of nuclear energy in satisfying global energy needs while reducing greenhouse gas emissions through an examination of the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. First, in both panel data sets (France included and excluded) heterogeneous panel cointegration tests indicate there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP, nuclear energy consumption, real gross fixed capital formation, and the labor force. The long-run elasticity estimates are positive and statistically significant with the magnitude of the estimates quite similar across both panel data sets. Second, for both panel data sets, the estimation of panel error correction models reveal there is short-run bidirectional causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth whereas in the long-run there is unidirectional causality from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth. Thus, the short-run bidirectional causality results lend support for the feedback hypothesis. The interdependence between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth suggests that energy policies designed to increase the production and consumption of nuclear energy will have a positive impact on economic growth. Moreover, given the reduction in the emission of air pollution and greenhouse gases associated with nuclear energy, there is also a positive spillover to the environment. Likewise, the positive influence on economic growth from the use of nuclear energy further enhances the viability of the nuclear energy sector over time. In summary, though the results of this study indicate bidirectional causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in the short-run with unidirectional causality from nuclear energy consumption to economic growth in the long-run, there are still some interesting questions to pursue in future research. First, given the use of nuclear power in the former Soviet Union, what is the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth for those countries within the Commonwealth of Independent States? Second, given that both nuclear and renewable energy sources garner environmental benefits in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, is one energy source more important in its contribution to economic growth than the other? Third, in light of the results reported in this study as well as in previous studies, would the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth change with the inclusion of other energy consumption measures?