آزمایش علیت چند متغیره از انتشار دی اکسید کربن، مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی در چین

This paper uses multivariate co-integration Granger causality tests to investigate the correlations between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China. Some researchers have argued that the adoption of a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption as a long term policy goal will result in a closed-form relationship, to the detriment of the economy. Therefore, a perspective that can make allowances for the fact that the exclusive pursuit of economic growth will increase energy consumption and CO2 emissions is required; to the extent that such growth will have adverse effects with regard to global climate change.

Among the world’s developed and developing countries, China is the major producer of carbon dioxide emissions and the greatest consumer of energy, and a trend of consistent exponential growth has become apparent in recent years. In 1980, China’s carbon dioxide emissions amounted to 1405 million metric tons (MMT), equivalent to 7.78% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. By 2006, this amount had nearly tripled to 5607 MMT, accounting for 20.02% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Energy consumption in terms of oil accounted for 1694 MMT of carbon dioxide emissions in China in 1980 and 7530 MMT in 2006, almost 3.45 times increase. In addition, according to reports from the Energy International Administration, total global consumption of coal has increased significantly in recent years. Moreover, China is now the leading coal consumer and the second leading consumer of electricity, accounting for 28.74% and 16.67% of the world’s total consumption, respectively, in 2007. In addition, China’s economy is continuing to expand rapidly, and over the last 30 years it has averaged a remarkable 8% growth in gross domestic product (GDP) per annum, with the levels of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions increasing commensurate with this. Xiangzhao and Ji [1] examined the CO2 trends in China and concluded that economic development is the main factor contributing to increased emissions. Zhang et al. [2] studied the decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions over the period of 1991–2006 in China, and also found that economic activity has the largest positive effect on emissions. Based on these studies, it can be concluded that GDP growth is indissociable from increases in both energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Han and Wei [3] investigated the relationship between Chinese GDP and energy consumption and concluded that both variables produced feedback causality. Independent verification of this conclusion can be found in the work of Wolde-Rufael [4], which studied industrial energy consumption and GDP in Shanghai. Shiu and Lam [5] and Yuan et al. [6] studied electricity consumption and economic growth and found that China manifests unidirectional Granger causality, running from electricity consumption to real GDP. Yu et al. [7] studied the dynamic relationship between economic growth and China’s energy consumption through co-integration analysis and impulse response function, and ultimately concluded that the growth of GDP is a forceful driver in increased energy consumption. Erol and Yu [8] studied the relationship between electricity and income for industrialized countries, and found that consumption of the former was positively correlated with economic growth. Cheng [9] likewise discovered in a study of Brazil that energy consumption caused economic growth. Masih and Masih [10] and [11] examined the relationship between energy consumption and real income, as well as economic growth, and concluded that energy consumption was influenced by economic activities in India, Pakistan, Korea and Taiwan. Stern [12] and [13] studied the role of energy in the US and used a multivariate vector autoregression (VAR) model of GDP, energy use, capital, and labor inputs to examine the macroeconomic conditions, and confirmed that energy use causes economic growth with energy use taken as a quality-adjusted index of energy input. Hondroyiannis et al. [14] investigated the causality of energy consumption and economic growth in Greece and found those two variables instigated feedback causality. Soytas and Sari [15] studied the causality between energy consumption and GDP in the G-7 and emerging markets, and concluded that increased energy consumption facilitated economic growth in France, Germany, Japan, Argentina and Turkey. Yemane [16] examined the relationship between industrial energy consumption and GDP in a case study of Shanghai and concluded that GDP growth was induced by more energy consumption. Paul and Bhattacharya [17] found bi-directional causality from energy consumption to economic growth in India. Finally, Lee [18] studied energy consumption and GDP in 18 developing countries, and found that energy consumption causes GDP growth. The majority of the studies mentioned above confirm the existence of a close relationship between economic growth and energy consumption or carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in most places around the world. The majority of these papers studied causality with two variables, economic growth and energy consumption, or carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. This study investigates the causality with a multivariate co-integration test of carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption associated with the growth of GDP in China; in addition, the level of energy consumption from sources such as crude oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity generation is also considered. The rest of this research paper is divided into three sections: Section 2 features the methodology of co-integration and vector error correction model. Section 3 contains the empirical components of the study, which also include the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption. Lastly, this paper ends with conclusions drawn from the research findings.

The time series data were analyzed by way of unit roots and multivariate co-integration tests prior to application of the Granger causality test. VECM tests were used to estimate the direction of Granger causality for the multivariate co-integrated data. This paper examined the causality of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China. Energy consumption in this context includes not only crude oil, but also coal, natural gas and electricity. The results of the study demonstrate bi-directional causality running from: (1) GDP to CO2 emissions and the consumption of crude oil and coal; and (2) electricity consumption to GDP. Furthermore, increased GDP growth or energy consumption will stimulate CO2 emissions. Electricity consumption likewise is positively correlated with GDP growth, and coal consumption and CO2 emissions manifested bi-directional causality with a feedback effect. This study thus concludes that these variables attained Granger causality and a closed relationship. Economic growth induces a higher level of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. These facts make it difficult for the Chinese government to pursue a mutually exclusive policy, given that economic growth increases energy consumption and CO2 emissions, whilst the adoption of an energy conservation policy would have adverse effects on economic prosperity. This study also discussed the intensity of energy consumption and CO2 emissions, finding that both rose by over 60%, except for electricity consumption (up by only 13.91%). As a whole, energy use in China made efficiency gains over the period between 1981and 2006. China is the world’s largest carbon dioxide emission producer and a leader in economic growth. During the research period, China’s average GDP growth rate was 9.94%, as compared to the world average of 2.9%, 2.51% in developed countries, and 4.59% in developing nations. Economic growth induces air pollution and energy consumption, as attested by many studies, and China is no exception to this, and the government has responded with a number of measures to combat climate change. For example, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), implemented on July 14, 2009, encompasses 2128 projects approved by the Department of Climate Change National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). These projects focus on renewable energy, energy saving, improved efficiency and a reduction in the use of chemical pollutants. It is estimated that CO2 emissions could be mitigated by about 384 million metric tons per year by following these policies, and it is encouraging to see China not only focused on economic growth, but also mindful of the need to deal with climate change. We hope that the targets specified in the Kyoto Protocol to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 level might be possible in China over the ‘first commitment period’ (2008–2012). An added benefit is that reaching this goal would also satisfy the UNFCCC directive. One limitation of this study is that it only examined fossil fuels when considering primary energy sources, and future work should also consider nuclear power and renewable energy with regard to causality and economic growth, and the results of such research would have clear benefits for attempts to mitigate CO2 emissions and not impede economic growth.