رابطه مصرف برق و رشد اقتصادی در بنگلادش : بازبینی شواهد

In this paper, an attempt is being made to examine the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh using the vector error correction specified Granger causality test to search their short-run, long-run and joint causal relationships for the period of 1971–2008. Empirical findings reveal that there is a short-run unidirectional causal flow running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP without feedback. The presence of a positive short-run causality explains that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic activity in Bangladesh. Likewise, results from joint causality exhibit the same as in short-run. By contrast, long-run results show a bi-directional causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth with feedback. These findings can provide essential policy insights to design immediate and long-term growth prospect for Bangladesh keeping in mind its present planned growth strategy and dismal power and energy sector.

Over the past three decades, studying the interrelation between electricity consumption and economic growth has been a major issue across the developing economies. Several studies have been conducted to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth to understand their nature of relationship for policy purposes (Table 1). Most of these studies reveal some unidirectional causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, especially in the context of developing countries (Aqeel and Butt, 2001, Mozumder and Marathe, 2007 and Narayan, 2005), whereas some studies also support that there can be changes in the direction of electricity consumption and economic growth depending upon their long-run and short-run relationships (Lee and Chang, 2008).It is not that no such attempt has yet been made to assess the linkage between per capita GDP and per capita electricity consumption in the context of Bangladesh. Mozumder and Marathe (2007) conducted a short-run causality test using the data for the period of 1971–1999, whereas the study by Assaduzzaman and Billah (2006) estimated a long-run income elasticity of energy demand for Bangladesh using data for 1994–2004. Both the studies are found to be important on many grounds, yet no study to date has been conducted to assess their short-run, long-run and joint relationship to facilitate immediate, medium and long-term power policies for the country to attain its desired economic performance. It also needs to be mentioned here that both of the studies have not employed recent data set. Given many changes that have taken place in the recent years in electricity sector in Bangladesh and the continued power crisis, there is a need to re-evaluate the possible causal relationship between electricity and economic performance from a fresh perspective in the context of Bangladesh. Against this backdrop, this paper is designed to explore possible sources and directions of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the country to understand their immediate, long-run and joint causalities using annual data covering the period of 1971–2008.1 A vector error correction model specified Granger causality test was used to analyze the relationships. It is assumed that such an exercise would add more robustness in the findings meant for short, medium and long-term policy implications for electricity as well as for economic growth in the context of Bangladesh.

This study has been conducted to assess the causal relationship between per capita electricity consumption and per capita GDP of Bangladesh covering the period 1971–2008, keeping in mind immediate, mid-term and long-term policy implications concerning electricity generation, distribution and management in one hand and to accelerate per capita GDP on the other. In view of this, the study has employed necessary econometric techniques such as unit root test, cointegration test and a step by step analysis of vector error correction specified Granger causality test to understand the source and direction of the possible causal relationship between electricity consumption and GDP for Bangladesh. Results from the cointegration test establish the existence of a cointegrating (long-run equilibrium) relationship between the series, while the causality results exhibit some robust evidences of positive and unidirectional short-run and joint causal relationships running from per capita electricity consumption to per capita GDP. Similarly, the results also substantiate a bi-directional causal relationship between the two variables in the long run. The findings lay emphasis on electricity consumption as a pre-requisite of achieving higher GDP growth, both in short and medium term perspectives for Bangladesh. This implies that priority should be given to electricity generation, distribution and management in the short and medium term policies of the government to achieve higher per capita GDP for the economy. Taking into cognizance this fact the recent emphasis on establishing rental, quick rental and peaking power plants by the government across the country to improve the power situation within the shortest possible time can be considered as a positive step to accelerate country's economic performance, provided such initiatives are cost-effective and do not necessarily require subsidy measure, as such a step may cut down government's budgetary allocations for other productive sectors and jeopardize the overall macroeconomic stability in the economy. Contrary to the short and medium term results, higher access to electricity and high per capita GDP are likely to influence each other, which in turn suggests investing on strengthening electricity supply in the country as well as on those factors, which influence GDP growth in the long run. In view of the above findings it is recommended that generation of electricity should be given due priority in the short and medium term policies for the economy of Bangladesh to achieve higher per capita GDP, while GDP may also take care of achieving higher electricity consumption in the long run. Therefore rationalization of power tariff, minimization of system loss and demand side management need to be given due priority in immediate and mid-term policies of the government, besides ensuring higher electricity generation in the economy. In view of the importance of accessing electricity for accelerating per capita GDP in short and mid-run, higher investment in power can be suggested. However, it can also be opined that Bangladesh could pursue power generation from other non-conventional sources such as solar, hydro and wind power in the short run despite that such initiatives may turn out to be little more costly in the short run. On the other hand, there is a need to provide favorable fiscal incentives and also encourage private entrepreneurs in developing power sector in Bangladesh in the long-run along with other growth influencing factors. But given the weak electricity situation in Bangladesh and her desire to become a middle income country, which is envisaged in Vision 2021, she needs to pursue a policy of establishing power plants, which will be cost-effective in the long run, possibly using the vast local coal resource, which at present occupies only an insignificant part of the fuel needs for her power generation.