تحلیل هم انباشتگی و علیت مصرف مس و رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای ثروتمند

The paper examines the copper consumption-economic growth nexus for 16 rich economies from the period 1966 to 2010. Various generations of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Both series are found to be integrated of order one. Evidence of cointegration is found especially when controlling for breaks and long-run cross-sectional dependence. Causality is investigated using a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) framework. At individual level, unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption is unraveled for Finland, France and UK in the long-run. Unidirectional causality is also found running from copper consumption to economic growth for Spain. Long-run bi-directionality between economic growth and copper consumption is found for Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan and South Korea. The neutrality hypothesis holds for Australia, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and USA in the long-run. Taken as a whole, panel causality test reveals a long-run unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption.

Copper is one of the oldest metals to have ever been exploited and is still a key input in many sectors such as in power, building, transport and many other sectors. For instance, given its malleability, electricity conductivity and corrosion-resistant capacity, copper is used in generators and cables to provide electricity. It is also utilized during construction of buildings for roofing, cladding, etc. and in the manufacturing of vehicles. These are essentially the products of rich countries and as such copper is closely connected to the economic development of a nation. Following Hricik (1988), while developed nations consume proportionally more copper than developing one, their demand has eventually leveled off. This is because there is a limit to the number of motor cars, washing machines, television sets and other equipment which a family can use. According to the International Copper Study Group (2013), the copper market is expected to have a production surplus and this may of course affect the price of copper. But then again, this will affect copper consumption and potentially the economic growth of a country. It remains therefore necessary for policymakers to understand the causal link between copper consumption and economic growth in order manage their copper inventories and to meet their objectives of sustaining economic development. They can eventually use such information to make forecasts and enact mineral policies. So far, the literature has focused on time-series studies mainly and very few studies have been done for a group of countries. This paper presents a study of the link between copper consumption and economic growth using panel data from 16 rich countries2 from the period of 1966–2010. Refined copper consumption data are obtained from the World Metal Statistics (various years) which are compiled from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (2012) and those of real gross domestic product (GDP) are compiled from the World Development Indicators CD-ROM (2011). The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Section 2 reviews the existing literature. Section 3 discusses the testing framework. Section 4 presents the results. Section 5 concludes and provides some the policy implications. Review of literature The literature on the link between metal consumption and economic growth is somewhat scanty. Tilton (1989) investigates the consumption trend of six industrial metals in the OECD, USA, Japan and the EEC over two periods, 1960–1973 and 1973–1985. Such trend is found to be stimulated by increased economic activities. Roberts (1990) forecasts US steel consumption up to 2010 using data over the period 1963–1983 and pinpoints to the importance of the gross national product (GNP) in determining metal use. Labson and Crompton (1993) analyze the link between five industrial metals and income for the USA, UK, Japan and OECD for the period of 1960–1987 and discover little evidence of a long-run relationship between the two variables. Ghosh (2006) studies the link between steel consumption and economic growth in India for the period beginning in 1951–1952 and ending in 2003–2004. He finds no evidence of cointegration but he finds existence of a unidirectional causal effect of economic growth on steel consumption. In similar fashion, Huh (2011) investigates the link between steel consumption and economic activity for Korea over the period of 1975–2008. He discovers evidence of a long-run relationship between total steel consumption and GDP, running from GDP to total steel consumption. Jaunky (2012) studies the link between aluminum consumption and economic growth for 20 rich countries. His study reveals a unidirectional causality running from aluminum consumption to economic growth in the short-run and vice-versa in the long-run.

The paper examines the relationship between copper consumption and economic growth for 16 rich countries over the period of 1966–2010. Three generations of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Both series are found to be I(1) cointegrated especially after controlling for cross-sectional cointegration. Time-series and panel causality tests are both performed. Unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption is detected for South Korea, Sweden, UK and USA in the short-run and for Finland, France and UK in the long-run. Unidirectional causality is found running from copper consumption to economic growth for Australia, Finland and Italy in the short-run and for Spain in the long-run. Bi-directionality between economic growth and copper consumption prevails for Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan and South Korea in the long-run. No causality is found for Australia, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and USA in the long-run. Long-run panel unidirectional causality running from economic growth to copper consumption is also uncovered. These findings have important implications for policymakers in assisting them to make long-run projections of copper demand and growth. In line with the panel causality result, economic growth can be used to predict copper consumption but not vice versa in the long-run. At individual levels, the same result is obtained for Finland, France and UK in the long-run. As such, mineral conservation policies could be implemented by these countries, without much concern of a long-run impact on economic growth. Copper consumption is not a good indicator for predicting future long-run economic growth outcomes for Australia, Austria, Canada, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and USA and the reverse also holds true. Likewise, similar impact of those policies on economic growth can be expected. However, copper consumption can be used to predict economic growth in Spain, but the opposite is not true. In this case, mineral conservation policies can affect the Spanish long-run economic growth rate. Furthermore, in the case of Belgium, Greece, Italy, Japan and South Korea, economic growth can be used to forecast copper consumption and vice versa. As a result, mineral conservation policies could well impede economic growth in those countries. The impact of those policies may be more pronounced for those economies whose growth is based on manufacturing such as Japan and South Korea. In sum, economic growth will continue to affect the demand for copper for the rich countries even in the far future. Despite the availability of a wide variety of copper substitutes, the copper industry has a vital role to play in the economic sphere of those countries. For instance, in case policymakers forecast a rise in economic growth, it is imperative they look at their mineral policies to ensure an adequate and efficient supply of copper in order to sustain their long-term development goals.