تجزیه و تحلیل ورودی و خروجی در یک اقتصاد نفت خیز: مثال آذربایجان

This paper aims to provide empirical research to identify the linkages between final demand–total output, final demand–total supply, value-added ratios and prices, and also to analyze total factor productivity growth using input–output framework for 25 sectors. Studying the input–output tables for 2001 and 2006, the research estimates impact and response multipliers of non-oil sectors, as well as non-oil trading sectors. The results are important from the view of development of non-oil trading sectors and diversification of the economy in order to avoid the “resource curse”.

The last economic downturn in Azerbaijan started in 1989 when the country was part of the Soviet planned economy, and experiencing deep recession. The contraction of the economy continued during the first years of independence, and positive GDP growth was observed again only in 1996. Azerbaijan surpassed its Soviet period peak level (1988) GDP in 2006, and then doubled it in 2010. The jump in the GDP growth in the recent years (26.4% in 2005, 34.5% in 2006, 25.0% in 2007, and 10.8% in 2008) was achieved due to the sharp increase in hydrocarbon extraction after 2005 and fiscal stimulation as the result of skyrocketing oil prices for the same period. The Azerbaijan economy also demonstrated quite high total GDP growth (9.3%) in 2009 during the global recession.

Although a marginal change in final demand has a significant impact on mining and quarrying of energy producing materials, the impact of this sector on total output and total supply is relatively low. This can be explained by a limited capacity of this sector to directly generate wealth and employment opportunities on a large scale. For this reason consideration should be given to policies to increase linkages between mining and quarrying of energy producing materials and other economic activities. Azerbaijan’s geographic location and growing activity of international transport corridors such as North–South and Europe–Caucasus–Asia increased the role of the transport and storage sector in inter-industry relations.