تاثیر توسعه مالی بر انتشار کربن: تجزیه و تحلیل تجربی در چین

Given the complexity between China's financial development and carbon emissions, this paper uses some econometric techniques, including cointegration theory, Granger causality test, variance decomposition, etc., to explore the influence of financial development on carbon emissions. Results indicate that, first, China's financial development acts as an important driver for carbon emissions increase, which should be taken into account when carbon emissions demand is projected. Second, the influence of financial intermediation scale on carbon emissions outweighs that of other financial development indicators but its efficiency's influence appears by far weaker although it may cause the change of carbon emissions statistically. Third, China's stock market scale has relatively larger influence on carbon emissions but the influence of its efficiency is very limited. This to some extent reflects the relatively lower liquidity in China's stock markets. Finally, among financial development indicators, China's FDI exerts the least influence on the change of carbon emissions, due to its relatively smaller volume compared with GDP; but it is mainly utilized in carbon intensive sectors now, therefore, with the increase of China's FDI in the future, many efforts should be made to adapt its utilizing directions and play its positive role in promoting low-carbon development.

China now has become the largest carbon emitter in the world with the share 24.2% of the total in 2009 (BP, 2010). And in the long future, with the process of industrialization and urbanization, China's economy will continuously grow, which may inevitably cause ever-increasing carbon emissions. Under this circumstance, in order to effectively promote sustainable development of socio-economy and address global climate change, Chinese central government promised to reduce 40–45% carbon emissions intensity (carbon emissions per unit of GDP) by 2020 compared with the 2005 level. But, a dilemma has popped up for China between increasing national income and reducing carbon emissions, which has attracted extensive attention but the conclusions are not consistent and the solution proves unclear till now.

China has become the largest carbon emitter in the world and the 40–45% carbon emissions intensity reduction target by 2020 has been announced to the whole world; meanwhile, China's financial system is still in its infancy but has begun the fast take-off especially since the new century, which may foster an important impetus for economic growth and carbon emissions. Under this circumstance, the influence of China's financial development on carbon emission becomes a crucial issue. Therefore, using some econometric techniques, including cointegration theory, variance decomposition, Granger causality test, etc., this paper explores the influence of China's financial development on carbon emissions, and some conclusions and policy implications are obtained.