آزادسازی حساب سرمایه، توسعه مالی و رشد صنعت:دیدگاه مصنوعی

This paper synthesizes studies analyzing the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth while controlling for financial crises, domestic financial development and the strength of institutions. We find evidence that financial openness has positive effects on the growth of financially dependent industries, although these growth-enhancing effects evaporate during financial crises. Further analysis indicates that the positive effects of capital account liberalization are limited to countries with relatively well-developed financial systems, good accounting standards, strong creditor rights and rule of law. It suggests that countries must reach a certain threshold in terms of institutional and economic development before they can expect to benefit from capital account liberalization.

The growth effects of capital account liberalization are an issue that will not go away. Since the turn of the century additional countries have moved to relax and remove restrictions on capital flows (Fig. 1). The subsequent decade then saw the fastest global growth in more than 30 years, an outcome in which many low- and middle-income countries shared. This coincidence of timing encouraged causal arguments that capital mobility was contributing to growth. Indeed some explanations made the connection explicit, such as the so-called Bretton Woods II model which portrays capital mobility as an essential element of high global growth in recent years.1

In this paper we have synthesized previous studies examining the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth, controlling for financial crises, domestic financial development and institutional strength. While a large number of robustness checks inevitably produce a large number of somewhat different point estimates, the result is, nonetheless, a coherent picture. Our findings suggest that while capital account openness has positive effects on the growth of financially dependent industries, those effects are neutralized by crises; that is, the growth of financially dependent sectors is no faster in financially open than financially closed economies in decades punctuated by crises. But neither is their growth slower in crisis periods. This suggests that on average countries that have succeeded in avoiding crises have benefited from capital account liberalization while countries that have not so succeeded have neither benefited nor suffered.