مصرف انرژی و توسعه اقتصادی در جنوب صحرای آفریقا
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Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Economics, Volume 32, Issue 3, May 2010, Pages 532–537
Sub-Saharan African countries' economic development is dependent on energy consumption. This paper assesses total energy demand, which is composed of traditional energy (wood fuel) and commercial energy (electricity and petroleum), in the Central, East, South, and West regions of Sub-Saharan Africa. Cross-sectional time series data for 20 countries in 25 years are analyzed, and the results of the study show that wood fuel accounts for 70% of energy consumption, followed by petroleum, with most industrial activities utilizing some form of wood fuel. Regression results suggest that energy demand is inversely related to the price of petroleum and industrial development, but positively related to GDP, population growth rate, and agricultural expansion, and that price elasticity is less than one. The model results also show that there are regional differences in energy demand. In addition, the interaction of population growth rates by regions generates mixed results, and there are regional differences in the use of commercial energy consumption, and GDP growth. The findings of this study suggest that countries must diversify their energy sources and introduce energy-efficient devices and equipment at all levels of the economy to improve GDP growth rate and GDP per capita.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is home to 13% of the world's population. Although the majority of people in SSA countries live in rural areas, urban population increased from 22% to 36% between 1980 and 2005 (The World Bank, 2007). The region has the lowest total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP per capita in the world, although there have been notable improvements since 2000, when annual GDP and GDP per capita for the region grew by 5.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Both of these rates were higher than the world averages, which were 4.1% and 3.1%, respectively (ERS/USDA, 2008). The downturn in global trade and investment since 2001 has affected the world economy and, as a result, global GDP has dropped. The world GDP is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.2% over the period of 2000–2010, while that of Africa is predicted to increase at 3.8% (IEA, 2002). Anticipated economic growth is associated with increased utilization of fossil fuel energy, and it is expected that lower income countries, especially SSA countries, will increase their demand for fossil fuels in the next decade which may also affect climate change.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
The results of this study are consistent with past findings that have identified the association between economic growth and energy use. The GDP and GDP per capita in SSA are the lowest in the world, and any improvement of the current situation will require an increase in energy use since a 1% increase in GDP requires a 0.55% increase in energy. Emphasis on energy efficiency in both the industrial and agricultural sector can reduce the overall energy demand and improve economic growth. Wood fuel is the primary source of energy for both household and small industrial activities, and wood fuel per capita is declining which could be due to an increase in efficiency or there is not enough supply to meet the growing demand, or a combination of both. Most of the additional energy consumption originates from wood fuel, which has health-related problems and creates constraint and ecological challenges in many countries. Deforestation is also evident in most SSA countries, affecting the environment, causing erosion, and keeping productivity low, which worsens food insecurity.