مسیر نمای 3G تلویزیون تلفن همراه : تفکر استراتژیک و سناریو برنامه ریزی از طریق تاثیر متقابل مکرر

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. This study, based on a Scenario Evaluation and Analysis through Repeated Cross impact Handling, allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios and can be used as an operative planning tool. The dynamic forces driving the scenario are based on the main principles of system thinking and multiple features. The probabilistic data have been elicited with the help of 40 executives in USA and Europe working for companies in the different phases of the wireless value chain. Findings allow to identify basic trends and uncertainties useful to develop corporate or business strategies.

In order to deal with growing uncertainties emerging in the 3G wireless industry and to preserve their competitiveness, managers involved in the wireless value network should identify future success very early and develop their strategic planning on time. A valid concept of what the future could be implies the existence of an overall conjectural framework which makes full allowance for the dynamics and complexity of the various systems involved. To address this objective companies need to develop a scenario management approach which aims to help them to manage this complex planning situation basing on intelligible description of a possible situation in the future characterized by a complex network of influence [1] that are adjusted precisely to their enterprises. As most of the scenarios that have been constructed in the literature have little relevance to studies of real strategic planning, the scenario management approach adopted in this study includes the principles of systems thinking [2] and multiple futures in which enterprises must perceive their environment as a complex network of influence factors which are connected to each other. With reference to the 3G wireless industry we focus on complexity described by the trends of variety and dynamics [3]. Trend of variety refers to the rising growth of the number of relevant factors related to new technologies, standard globalization, political regulations, and growing expectation from customers. Trend of dynamics refers to the dynamics of the process of changes in the industrial environment. With specific reference to 3G mobile TV services we develop a scenario based on five project phases. Aim of this study is to provide a tool useful to develop corporate or business strategies and similar elements of these strategies, such as mission statements or core competencies. Porter's scheme of the value chain [4] is used as a tool for strategic analysis. Different scenarios have different effects on the relative importance of the activities generating added value, the configuration of the chain, cost determinants, interrelations, the sustainability of sources of competitive advantage and the choice of base strategies. In the remainder of Section 2, we describe the purpose of the study. Section 3 describes the research design, philosophy and implementation; Section 4 describes the principal findings of the research and explains the key insights provided in the model; Section 5 presents a discussion of plausible scenarios; Section 6 presents the strategic analysis; and Section 7 provides a summary and conclusion.

In conclusion the strategic importance of the mobile TV lies in its potential capacity to stimulate the mass market. This implies the importance to understand the specific needs of users and to allow them to understand the benefits offered by these new services. The method adopted in this study SEARCH emphasizes the link between forecasting and planning, promoting an overall prospective vision. Its implementation singles out the cause–effect relationships in order to understand the dynamics of the sector, the variables to be kept under observation and the range of alternatives around which it is necessary to build a strategy. We use this method to develop multiple plausible future scenarios for the industry, with the expectation that further data collection and ongoing experience with this technology generation will shed increasing amounts of light onto the relative likelihood of each scenario.