تاثیر چرخه بازار املاک و مستغلات بر توسعه در لتونی

In the current study the free vibrations of stepped anisotropic rectangular plates on elastic foundation are considered. The anisotropic In this scientific article there are considered the main problems of real estate market cycle, the main interrelated economic aspects of the problem and their connection with real estate development. The research objective is to identify the main regularities of the influence of real estate market cycle on the development in Latvia, having paid special attention to economic aspects of the problem. In the research there have been used comparative, historical, statistical methods and the method of enumeration. On the basis of the conducted research the authors have provided recommendations for decreasing risks of development and unbalanced market cycle that will facilitate more effective decision-making promoting stable long-term development of the economy as a whole.

Cyclical development of the economy demands from participants of the market the fast adaptation to changes of an economic situation in the country. The rationale of the subject results from changes on real estate market, decisions and actions, which are made and carried out by the government, households, public organizations and business sector, and affect the whole country and every single inhabitant, and also have high social significance. The research objective is to identify the main regularities of the influence of real estate market cycle on the development in Latvia, having paid special attention to the period from 2004 to 2011. The identification of the main regularities will give the chance to define the main problems which real estate market participants face and the main tendencies of this market development. In the research there have been used comparative, historical, statistical methods and the method of enumeration. The conducted analysis will help to define the most important preventive measures for timely regulation of the economy in order to avoid its unbalanced development. For achieving the objective the following tasks were set: • – research of thematic scientific literature; • – research of real estate cycles and their phases; • – the analysis of real estate market cycle in Latvia during the period from 2004 to 2011; • – selection and analysis of statistical information on this subject; • – definition of the main problems connected with unbalanced development of real estate market; • – identification of preventive actions for stable development of real estate market. Real property is an essential commodity and the most expensive one. In particular, on the example of real estate market it is possible to see the main problem of the economy that is resource limitation and growing requirements of population. This problem was studied by many scientists, such as A. Smith [16], D. Ricardo [13], T. R. Malthus [12] and others. Nowadays a global tendency is an increase in population of the planet; in this regard the significance of real property is increasing. Also every year the issue of ecological building becomes more important. The construction branch is one of the most important components in the structure of the country’s GDP as construction of real property creates high additional cost and a large number of jobs that influences purchasing power of population and price level as a whole, and also many other indicators and processes. Changes on real estate market influence other sectors of the national economy. It is more difficult to name an indicator or processes which the situation on real estate market would not influence.

Basing on the conducted research it is possible to draw the following conclusions: • one of the main problems of development is insufficient competence of some part of investors and the business sector in planning building activities. The untimely beginning of development has the heightened risk and can lead to heavy losses; • in Latvia the real estate market cycle is more unbalanced than the economic cycle. Information asymmetry in the branch contributes inefficient decision-making concerning development and investment in real estate. It specifies that the majority of participants of the market do not have enough information on the situation and tendencies on real estate market, or this information is wrong; • after ‘’the bottom’’ phase in the economy of Latvia and on real estate market, there is the expansion phase which is characterized by a number of the improved macroeconomic indicators; in this connection the volume of construction branch has increased, the number of buyers on real estate market has been increasing, and there is gradual price appreciation for certain segments of real estate. Basing on the conclusions it is recommended: • at the beginning of the investment project it is necessary to carry out the separate analysis of the external factors influencing the project, special attention having paid to the analysis of a macroeconomic situation and cyclic development of real estate market. It is also recommended to pay attention to the analysis of psychology of buyers including the irrational nature of the buyer influencing decision-making; • considering the nature of the Latvian economy, the medium-term projects in the real estate sector (especially housing renovation projects), which duration is up to 3 or 5 years, are recommended to be started in the end of the economic recession phase. When real estate cycle reaches ‘’the bottom’’ phase, there will be an opportunity to conclude contracts at low prices or to take out a loan at a favourable interest rate; • for reduction of information asymmetry the government or the appointed competent establishment has to pay special attention to informing the society and real estate market regulating, mainly by means of effective fiscal and monetary policy, for its balanced development. For reduction of speculation in the branch it is recommended to make use of experience of Sweden: the system of cooperative houses reduces possibility of speculation and increases the level of availability of housing for population.