ارزیابی اثرات بازار کار خدمت سربازی

We identify the causal effect of compulsory military service on conscripts’ subsequent labor-market outcomes by exploiting the regression-discontinuity design of the military draft in Germany during the 1950s. Consistent estimates of military service on lifetime earnings, wages, and days of employment are obtained by comparing men born before July 1, 1937 (the “White Cohort”) who were exempted from compulsory military service to men who were born on or shortly after this threshold date and who faced a positive probability of being drafted. We find that the putative earnings advantage and wage premium of those who served in the armed forces vanish when selection effects are taken into account.

The recruitment of military personnel varies considerably across countries and over time. Until recently, most European countries pursued a policy of compulsory military service (CMS). However, since the end of the Cold War, an all-volunteer force made more sense for a number of nations. Germany indefinitely suspended CMS in 2011, with the last set of conscripts ending their service at the end of June. Although military service remains part of Germany's Basic Law (Article 12a), it has been abolished for all practical purposes. Yet, a few European countries are not planning to abandon the military draft (e.g., Austria, Denmark, Switzerland, Norway, and Greece). Many economic arguments suggest that a professional army should be preferred because of structural inefficiencies and potential long-run costs that may arise in a draft system (see, for instance, Lau et al., 2004 and Keller et al., 2009 for a recent analysis of the dynamic costs of the draft). However, because the cost of running the armed forces is seemingly less under conscription than with an all-volunteer force, the global prevalence of the former remains nontrivial. Indeed, large swaths of South America, Africa, and Asia enforce some form of conscription, making North America and Western Europe the conspicuous exceptions.

The costs and benefits of serving in the military for the conscripts themselves have not been thoroughly examined in Germany. A proponent of conscription may point to the fact that, in terms of wages, employment, and lifetime earnings, men who served in the Bundeswehr end up performing better than those who did not serve. That is, the costs of performing military service are outweighed by its benefits. Such benefits may be due to the transfer of valued skills learned in the armed forces to the civilian labor market or outright preferential treatment for draftees. However, such a comparison would fail to take into account the manner in which these men were selected into the Bundeswehr. When we correct for the selection bias, we find that CMS has no long-run impact on the labor-market performance of conscripts. Therefore, the observed earnings differential between conscripts and nonconscripts could entirely be attributed to the way the former were selected into the armed forces. Consider the likely case wherein these men are healthier than their rejected or exempted counterparts. To the extent that a better health status contributes to a better labor-market outcome, it would be reasonable to say that conscripts would have earned more even without serving in the Bundeswehr. We conclude that the observed differences between those who served and those who did not serve cannot be attributed to military service.