اثرات بازار کار برون سپاری تحت وابستگی صنعتی متقابل

The consequences of international outsourcing in traditional models of trade are already well understood. However, with regard to empirical research there seem to be still some important shortcomings. Empirical studies on the labor market effects of outsourcing are mainly based on the same techniques that have been used for years. In terms of the adopted econometric specifications, one assumption is typical and – as we will show – critical in this regard. Practically all studies we are aware of assume independence between industries and neglect any spillover and feedback effects across industries. In fact, this is at odds with multi-sector general equilibrium models of trade. It is this paper's focus to relax this restrictive assumption and to suggest the use of different econometric methods. We consider national input–output linkages and cross industrial flows of workers as two important channels of inter-industrial spillovers in labor market effects. We focus on these transmission channels in an Austrian panel data set of 21 two-digit industries in the 1990s and find that industrial interdependencies induce a multiplier effect for changes in industry-specific variables such as international outsourcing. Disregarding spillover effects, therefore, leads to a substantial underestimation of the labor market implications of international outsourcing.

The notable increase of international outsourcing in the last few decades has come into the limelight of interest in the scientific discussion on the effects of globalization. As put forward by several authors, it is vertical fragmentation and international trade of intermediate goods that makes globalization today so different from market integration a hundred years ago. Krugman (1995, p. 331) remarks that “it is hard to argue that the sheer volume of trade marks a qualitative difference from previous experience” and Feenstra & Hanson (2001, p. 5) conclude that it is the composition of trade in general and the share of intermediate goods in particular which matters. Grossman & Helpman (2002b, p. 1) summarize the existing views by stating: “We live in an age of outsourcing.” Nowadays, international outsourcing is seen as an important alternative to skill-biased technical change as induced by the increasing use of computer facilities to explain factor market developments in the industrialized world.2Feenstra & Hanson, 1996a and Feenstra & Hanson, 1999 have shown that international outsourcing accounts for up to 30% of the increase in relative wages observed in US labor markets in the 1980s. In continental European economies, wage effects should be of minor importance, given the prevalence of institutions like trade unions. In a unionized economy, international outsourcing has employment rather than wage effects, since factor prices are not (fully) flexible. Using a panel of Austrian manufacturing industries, Egger & Egger (2003) confirm this hypothesis and show that international outsourcing to Central and Eastern European Economies (CEECs) significantly shifts relative employment in favor of skilled labor.