بررسی اثرات بالقوه پلاگین وسایل نقلیه الکتریکی در بازار انرژی پرتغالی

Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. In this research, scenarios for 2020 EVs penetration and charging profiles are studied integrated with different hypotheses for electricity production mix. The impacts in load profiles, spot electricity prices and emissions are obtained for the Portuguese case study. Simulations for year 2020, in a scenario of low hydro production and high prices, resulted in energy costs for EVs recharge of 20 cents/kWh, with 2 million EVs charging mainly at evening peak hours. On the other hand, in an off-peak recharge, a high hydro production and low wholesale prices' scenario, recharge costs could be reduced to 5.6 cents/kWh. In these extreme cases, EV's energy prices were between 0.9€ to 3.2€ per 100 km. Reductions in primary energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions of up to 3%, 14% and 10%, respectively, were verified (for a 2 million EVs' penetration and a dry year's off-peak recharge scenario) from the transportation and electricity sectors together when compared with a BAU scenario without EVs.

In the last decades, the energy uses for electricity production and for the transportation sector have more than doubled (IEA, 2007a) and today face a number of challenges related to reliability, security and environmental sustainability. The scientific evidence on climate change (IPCC, 2007) has been calling for urgent cross-sector emission cutting and electrified transportation is in the portfolio of the technology options that may help to solve the problem (IEA, 2008). In Portugal, as in most of OCDE countries the transportation and electric power systems contribute to the majority of CO2 emissions (IEA, 2007b). Portugal imports all the fossil fuels (coal, natural gas and oil), that uses to produce electricity and for transportation. Oil accounts to 70% of this primary energy imports and 40% of it is used for transportation (DGEG, 2007) and so is responsible for the majority of emissions associated to the transport sector. All these facts are pressing decision makers/manufacturers to act on the road transportation sector, introducing more efficient vehicles on the market and diversifying the energy sources. Vehicles with electric propulsion are considered an attractive option on the pathway towards low emission vehicles. Electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which obtain their fuel from the grid by charging a battery, are set to be introduced into the mass market and expected to contribute to oil consumption reduction. PHEVs and EVs could provide a good opportunity to reduce CO2 emissions from transport activities if the emissions that might be saved from reducing the consumption of oil would not be off-set by the additional CO2 generated by the power sector in providing for the load the EVs represent. Therefore, EVs can only become a viable effective carbon mitigating option if the electricity they use to charge their batteries is generated through low carbon technologies. In addition to the environmental issue, EVs bring techno-economical challenges for electric utilities as well. This is because EVs will have great load flexibility as they are idle 95% of their lifetime, making it easy for them to charge either at home, at work, or at parking facilities, hence implying that the time of day in which they charge can easily vary. The addition of extra load for electric vehicles' recharge in the electricity system can be challenging, if its integration with the transportation system can improve energy efficiency and reduce overall emissions. In this research, we try to quantify the contribution of the transportation and electricity production sectors together to energy consumption, fossil fuels use and emissions reductions through different scenarios of EVs penetration and recharging profiles and simulate the impacts, these different scenarios have, on daily electricity demand as well as electricity prices. Simulations of the impacts in load profiles, spot prices and EV's energy costs (€/100 km) are obtained for the Portuguese case study for year 2020.

Energy consumption, fossil fuels use and CO2 emissions from electricity production and transportation (the light duty fleet segment) can be reduced with the integration of these two sectors by transport electrification. The replacement of a great amount of ICEVs by EVs in a country in which power generation accounts with more than 50% of renewable sources has positive environmental impacts. In this research, scenarios of EV penetration (energy needed) and recharge profile combined with the extreme cases of expected electricity production lead to different wholesale prices and hourly price profile, as well as fossil fuels use and emissions associated to charge the EVs, leading to different costs of the EV fuel per km. In simulations made for year 2020, 0.2 million EVs in Portugal (a reliable scenario) will have very little impact in load profiles and electricity prices. For the political goal scenario of 0.7 million EVs, the recharge profile can be able to influence electricity prices. In fact the cost for recharge could reach 17 cents/kWh in a peak recharge and only 5 cents/kWh in an off-peak's. For the hypothetic 2 million EVs scenario the cost could reach 20 cents/kWh for 2 in an uncontrollable recharge and a dry year scenario or 5.6 cents/kWh in an off-peak scheduled recharge and wet year scenario. In these extreme conditions EV fuel prices were between 0.9€ and 3.2€ per 100 km. Local emissions (CO, NOx, HC and PM) decreased to 10% by the replacement of light duty ICEVs (Euro V) by EVs, and were replaced by a 8% local emissions increase from electricity generation (NOx, SO2), for the strong EVs penetration scenario when providing the extra energy for EVs recharging.