تحقیقات مدلسازی دینامیکی برای اقتصاد نیروگاه های هسته ای در بازار انرژی هسته ای جهانی

Non-linear dynamical analysis for the global nuclear energy market is investigated. Currently, the market means a different characteristics comparing to the past situation which had been done before two severe accidents as the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant (NPP) accident in the United States and the Chernobyl NPP disaster in the Soviet Union. For the nuclear related facility, the environmental and safety aspects are the important issues of the analysis. Fundamentally, the economic factor is still a critical matter for the commercial trade between two countries which depend on the energy demand and uranium price. The dynamics simulations show the trend of trade is affected by the several kinds of the aspects. Using system dynamics (SD) method, the event quantification is performed for the event flows, stocks, and feedback where the single and double arrow lines are incorporated.

The worldwide energy demand can give a huge market in the nuclear industry. The feature of energy composition shows the steady portion of the nuclear energy. Therefore, the international trade market is affected by several factors which will be modeled in this paper. The main object of the paper is to find the quantified results for the global export and import in nuclear industry. It, however, is difficult for the simulation to express much tractably due to the linearity of the mathematical expression. So, the easy and non-linear method is needed to show the better explanations. Recently, South Korean government took the trade order of the advanced power reactor (APR) 1400 to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which is the new type of nuclear power plant (NPP) for 1400 MW(e) power [1]. There is some more export plan in Table 1[2]. There is a merit that the nuclear power is a non-carbon production energy source which makes the international trade of NPP be active. So, it is necessary to investigate the systematic estimations. The export and import simulation could be done by the statistical calculations. Presently, nuclear power reactors in operation with a total net installed capacity of 370,187 GW(e) which is seen Fig. 1[3]. Five nuclear power reactors are in long term shutdown. Fifty-six nuclear power reactors are under construction globally in Table 2[4]. The system dynamics (SD) is used for the quantifications of the marketing in this nuclear industry. The SD was introduced by Dr. Jay Forrest in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) for the non-linear characteristics of the social and economical system. This complex system for dynamical evaluation is tested by SD. The SD has been applied to the organizations by the transitions of the time [5] and [6]. Some other papers are also seen as the industrial markets [7], [8] and [9]. In addition, there are some decision-making related papers [10], [11], [12], [13] and [14]. The method section explains the method of the study. The calculation for the modeling is shown in the calculation section. The results section describes results of the study. There are some conclusions in the conclusions section. There are several studies for the nuclear energy markets. Erdogdo worked that the aims at evaluating both the present status of nuclear power in general and its implications for Turkish energy market in particular [15]. After examining existing nuclear power technology and providing a brief overview of nuclear power economics; it focused on the repercussions of nuclear power for Turkish energy market. In addition, Miller et al. studied that the water electrolysis by nuclear energy was the only available technology today able to meet the first and second criteria [16]. The third criterion includes costs of electrolysis and electricity. The primary requirements for affordable electrolysis were low capital cost and high utilization. Consequently, the electricity supply must enable high utilization as well as being itself low-cost. Also, Dahl showed to determine the maximum effect on the gas market, it was assumed that all new planned nuclear facilities would be replaced by natural gas facilities [17]. Since the gas market was heavily dependent on the oil market and gas transport was expensive, this moratorium was simulated using a spatial model that included both gas and oil. Carlsson et al. worked the evaluation of target market competition costs of fossil fueled cogeneration in 2030 which is allowable costs and cost breakdown for competitive nuclear cogeneration plant [18]. Nestle studied the effect of nuclear policy and the share of nuclear power was discussed and analyzed [19]. Grover showed the studies done by the Department of Atomic Energy indicated that even after exploiting full potential of every available source of energy including nuclear energy, India needed to continue to import energy resources [20]. Shropshire studied the future plans for energy production in the European Union as well as other locations called for a high penetration of renewable technologies (20% by 2020, and higher after 2020) [21]. Section 2 shows method for the modeling. The calculation for the modeling is given in Section 3. Section 4 is the results of the study. There are some conclusions in Section 5.

For the performance for the global nuclear marketing activity, the dynamical simulation has been done from 2010 to 2030. By the classification of the three cases, the technological factor, the political factor, and the diplomatic factor, the numerical values are obtained. The technological aspect has the most important factor among them. There are small effects for the funds and the market activity, although the diplomatic aspect and the political aspect are important things in the global nuclear marketing activity. The summarized points in this modeling are as follows: • Non-linear dynamical management has been performed in the global nuclear marketing activity of the NPP. • Using SD, there is an effective analysis of the global marketing. • The time feedback algorithm, SD, is applied to the marketing decision-making case. • Several uncertainties could be applied for the dynamics quantification in the marketing strategy. • Very tractable quantification is obtained by a computer package. Some significant issues for marketing could be studied in the further work. In the global economic crisis, the extensive strategy of the marketing is proposed. Furthermore, the real time monitoring by SD could be useful for the operation to prohibit the immediate price change in the world market.