مدل رگرسیون فازی در ارزیابی پروژه های "تحقیق و توسعه"

Engineering and technology play an important role in strengthening the competitive power of a company and in surviving a severe competition in the world. About 70% of the total R&D investment in Japan comes from the private sector. It is the most important to decide which research projects have to be adopted for a future research out of proposals from divisions and sections in a company. The objective of this paper is to analyze the results of experts’ evaluation in selecting submitted proposals for R&D and to model the experts’ evaluation. This paper analyzes a research and development of a certain manufacturing company in a heavy metallurgy industry. We employed a principal component model, dual scaling, AHP and fuzzy regression analysis to analyze the results that experts evaluated proposed research projects for single or plural of fiscal years. The experts’ evaluation was pursued on the basis of (1) the objective of a research project, (2) its background, (3) its research contents, (4) the expected effect, (5) the possibility of obtaining patents, (6) project schedule, (7) developing cost, etc. The obtained model results in the same selection of projects as the experts did.

In an economically high-growth period of Japan after the Second World War, companies competed with each other to manufacture and market products more efficiently and effectively than another companies. Therefore, the companies in Japan employed production control, new manufacturing methods, quality control and so on in their factories. Various excellent methods of production are created and developed such as just-in-time, automation, smoothening of production, etc. as a result. It is also necessary to reengineer a business process. In recent years, a company is required to provide products according to “needs” and “wants” of a market. Therefore, it is essential for a business to grasp the “needs” and “wants” of a market. It can run a business to cultivate products and services according to them.

The present days are named “age of knowledge” and a company is evaluated with its intellectual property and effort to develop a new market. The intellectual property, the company has, is coming from its R&D activity. Therefore, in this paper, we focused on a certain company and built the model to evaluate an R&D project. We understood its latent structure and the characteristics by means of a principal component analysis and the evaluation structure using AHP. Using these results, R&D evaluation model which presume an evaluation score was built by a fuzzy regression model. Using the R&D evaluation model obtained by a fuzzy regression analysis, it can describe the evaluation structure of the principal component analysis and the AHP. It should be noted that on the basis of the R&D evaluation model, the structure of the evaluation model of an R&D project is defined mainly using “Objective of R&D,” “Necessity of R&D” and “Possibility to get a patent.”