اطلاعیه های سازمان اوپک و اثرات آن بر قیمت های نفت خام
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی|
|17360||2010||7 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید|
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Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 2, February 2010, Pages 1010–1016
We investigate evidence on the effects of OPEC announcements on world oil prices by examining announcements from both official conferences and ministerial meetings on major international crudes, including the key benchmarks and several other heavy and light grades. With data from 1982 to 2008, we use event study methodology and find differentiation in the magnitude and significance of market responses to OPEC quota decisions under different price bands. We also find some (weak) evidence of differentiation between light and heavy crude grades.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries was set up in the mid-1960 s with the aim to promote the interests of some of the world's key producing countries, many of them located in the Middle East. Since its inception, OPEC's influence on world oil prices has been mixed. From the oil price hikes in 1973 and 1979, to the reverse oil price shock of 1986, and to the more recent roller-coaster story from 2005 to 2008, OPEC has been both vilified for exerting quasi-monopolistic control over surging oil prices, and dismissed for being unable to exert any control over tumbling oil prices. Adelman (2002) provides an excellent review of the oil history and the OPEC role. This paper does not set out to discuss the role of OPEC in an economics context and whether it exerts any kind of monopolistic, oligopolistic or other type of influence. Instead we follow a number of authors who look at OPEC purely as a source of news, which may affect supply-side fundamentals and, hence, oil prices. We do this by looking at empirical evidence on how major international crudes react to OPEC announcements. More specifically, we use event study methodology on a database covering sixteen major international oil grades over the period from 1982 to 2008. We look at oil price returns and we differentiate among various types of announcements, taking into account the relative level of oil prices around each announcement. We also examine the effects on OPEC and non-OPEC crudes, and on different crude qualities (heavy and light grades). By using this relatively long data series, we are able to provide evidence of changing OPEC behaviour and its varying impact on world oil prices. It is, to our best knowledge, the first time OPEC conference influences are examined in the context of relative oil price levels; and in sub-divisions of OPEC versus non-OPEC grades, as well as heavy versus light grades. These empirical results are important as they would help quantify the effects on world oil prices from OPEC conferences under varying market conditions and shed light on potential differential effects due to varying characteristics of the crudes. The rest of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 reviews the literature pertaining to the effects of OPEC announcements on oil markets and the procedure of OPEC announcements. Section 3 explains the methodology adopted for this study and the data used. Section 4 discusses the results of the study and the range of comparisons made, with Section 5 drawing conclusions.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
Our research builds on the existing literature on investigating the effects of OPEC announcements on oil prices. Using event study methodology we find that such announcements affect price returns, but the magnitude of such effects varies primarily according to the existing price regime. Quota cuts result in positive price returns, except in weak market conditions. Quota increases do not have a clear-cut effect when prices are relatively high, an asymmetry, which is noted earlier on. Quota increases do, however, result in negative returns in weak and ‘normal’ market prices, i.e. neither too low, nor too high. No changes in quotas seem to result in negative or insignificant returns, although more context is needed to draw a definitive reason for this behaviour. There are no significant differences between OPEC and non-OPEC crudes in relation to OPEC announcements, despite the popular belief that OPEC has superior information on oil price. Likewise, there are generally no significant differences between heavy and light grades, which are expected as this issue is more closely related to refining technology and other demand side issues. The message we seem to be getting from our analysis is that the importance of OPEC announcements is dependent on the context in which they are made. Both the type of decisions (cut, increase or no change) and the price environment (relatively low, average, or relatively high) are important and necessary if one is to evaluate the role and impact of OPEC announcements on crude oil markets. Some OPEC meetings generate excessive interest (and speculation) and are extensively covered in the press. Other meetings pass almost unnoticed. We cannot (and do not seek to) establish whether OPEC is losing or gaining ground in terms of power and impact. Post 2006, we have witnessed exceptionally dramatic changes in world oil prices. The seemingly insatiable thirst for the commodity (in its physical form for refining or as an investment vehicle) pushed its price to almost $150/bl. In the latter part of 2008 it came down even faster than it went up. OPEC's position does not seem to have changed substantially. In high prices every single OPEC meeting was headline news. As prices tumbled down, OPEC meetings lost their lustre and it is only the most recent one (March 2009) where an announcement of cuts coupled with a firm (but painful) resolution by members to adhere to them seems to have arrested, for now, the price fall. This behaviour seems to be in line with our analysis and findings.