ارزیابی پتانسیل گزینه های انرژی های تجدید پذیر در مقیاس کوچک برای پاسخگویی به نیازهای معیشت روستایی : ارزیابی مبتنی بر هزینه GIS و چرخه حیات گزینه های غربی چین

The economics and livelihoods impacts of stand-alone, small-scale (less than 2 kW) renewable energy technologies for rural electrification are assessed using a representative sample of 531 rural households in three provinces of Western China. Over 20 small wind, photovoltaic (PV) and wind–PV hybrid configurations were evaluated for their potential to meet local electricity needs. The assessment integrates lifecycle costing and geographic information system (GIS) methods in order to provide a comprehensive resource, economic, technological and livelihoods assessment. The results of the analysis indicate that off-grid renewable energy technologies can provide cost-effective and reliable alternatives to conventional generator sets in addressing rural livelihoods energy requirements. Findings also demonstrate the existence of a sizeable market potential for stand-alone renewable energy systems in Western China. In support of market development for these technologies, policy recommendations are provided.

Electricity service can bring tangible social and economic benefits to rural communities which represent 52% of the human population (UN, 2004). More than 2 billion rural residents in developing countries currently lack reliable electricity service (UNDP, 2004), indicating a significant livelihoods threat if the problem is not addressed. The Millennium Goals described by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development include a recognition of this problem (UN, 2002). Reversing the historical trend of development patterns that have largely neglected such populations will not be easy, but the importance of doing so is increasingly accepted (Zhou and Byrne, 2002). Small-scale diesel/gasoline generators have been used for decades to serve off-grid, rural electricity needs. But the technology poses a series of special technical, economic and environmental problems for rural communities (see, e.g., Byrne, 1996; Byrne et al., 1998 and Byrne et al., 2001). Micro-hydropower appears to be a more suitable solution, but is limited to areas where the resource is available (Martinot and Wallace, 2003). Wind and solar energy can offer viable sources of electrification in geographic areas of the developing world and may, therefore, be the most widely available options to meet off-grid electricity demand. The paper focuses on these two options.