پیش بینی هزینه های اقتصادی از فن آوری های آب شیرین کن

Government policy, in the form of grants and contracts for desalination technology, has had a major impact on steadily declining costs of desalination. The process, reverse osmosis (RO), exhibits economies of scale, which increases its feasibility as a water treatment technology for large populations. Ultrafiltration, an RO pre-treatment, also shows economies of scale. The real economic costs of desalination technology can be forecast using an ARIMA model. If these costs fall below those of conventional water treatment processes, RO and ultrafiltration become competitive with conventional water treatment technology. Our ARIMA forecasts are validated by using independent plant level cost data.

The objective of this paper is to forecast the real economic costs of desalination technology, to determine whether the costs for this technology are increasing or decreasing, and if there is evidence of economies of scale. If costs are decreasing, then the new technology could be feasible for all water treatment plants, particularly for improving the quality of fresh water for drinking and industrial use, and treating industrial water prior to discharge or reuse. This paper outlines U.S. Government policy towards desalination R&D from the 1950s to the present. This is followed by an ARIMA model to forecast the costs and consider the point at which this new technology is likely to be competitive with conventional water treatment methods. Our forecasts are indeed consistent with information on costs at individual plants.

The US Federal Government's policy of investing in R&D from 1952 to 1982 resulted in the unit cost of desalted water to decrease steadily. Our ARIMA model forecast indicates that desalination costs will continue to decline. Costs are likely to continue to fall due to the development and improvement of desalination technologies.UF, a desalination pretreatment technology, also exhibits economies of scale. As these costs fall below those of conventional water treatment technologies, state-of-the-art desalination can be utilized in all water treatment plants. The extent of the use of desalination in the future depends on the decreasing costs, the increasing demand for drinking water, the decreasing viability of alternatives, and stricter drinking water and discharge standards. The decline in energy costs, especially when using renewable energy, will make membrane technology for water production even more attractive in the future. A case in point is the Tampa Bay desalination plant, which uses gravity as part of its energy requirements, making it perhaps the most efficient plant when it reaches full capacity in 2008. It is expected that the cost of water at Tampa Bay will fall to $0.49 per m 3.