اصلاحات ساختاری، تجارت درون منطقه ای، و چشم انداز رشد میان مدت از شرق آسیا و اقیانوس آرام-دیدگاه از مدل چند منطقه جدید

This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the US and the G3 (US, euro area, and Japan) on the members of the Executives’ Meeting of East Asian-Pacific Central Bank (EMEAP). The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model which is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, as it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand allowing the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also demonstrate that structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in major economies.

Emerging Asia is generally considered vulnerable to external shocks because of its heavy dependence on exports, see IMF (2007) for instance. However, the stellar growth and rapid expansion of intra-regional trade in recent years have prompted some economists to argue that the region has become more resilient to shocks emanating from major economies. In particular, some studies, Chan (2007) for example, argue that Mainland China (China hereafter) has become a major driver of growth in the region. Other studies (Asian Development Bank, 2007, IMF, 2007 and MAS, 2007), however, point out that while intra-regional trade linkages have increased in recent years, about two thirds of the trade flows still consist of intermediary goods which are assembled in China and then shipped to markets outside the region. In particular, Zhang (2008) finds that roughly half of the exports of Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia to China in 2005 were used as inputs for exports to other countries. There are also analyses taking emerging Asia's increased integration into the global financial system as a potential source of exposure of the region to external shocks (Cheung et al., 2008 and He et al., 2007a).

The spillovers from a 1 percentage point decline in the demand in the US or the G3 range between −1/4 percentage points and −1 1/2 percentage points of output growth for EMEAP6, and between −1/4 percentage points and −2 percentage points for China, depending on monetary policy responses, the degree of exchange rate flexibility, and whether the slowdown is accompanied with financial disruptions. The range of spillovers is narrower for Australia–New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea.