چه کسی از موافقت نامه های تجاری منطقه ای سود می برد؟ دیدگاه از بازار سهام

The consequences of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on countries׳ welfare are disputed. In this paper, we assess these effects using stock returns from a recent data set that spans over 200 RTA announcements, 80 economies, and 20 years. We measure the effects of news concerning RTAs on the returns of national stock markets, after adjusting these returns for international stock market movements. We then link these abnormal returns to features of the RTA members and the agreements themselves. We find strong evidence of the natural trading partner hypothesis; stock markets rise more when RTAs are signed between countries that already engage in high volumes of trade. Stock markets also rise more when poorer countries sign RTAs, and when RTAs are signed with smaller partners. We also find no evidence that capital markets expect significant trade diversion effects.

The consequences of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on countries’ welfare are disputed. In this empirical paper, we take a fresh look at the issue and assess RTAs using the lens of the stock market. Almost all economists favor trade liberalization; they disagree on how to get there. Multilateral liberalization is better in principle, but more difficult in practice, especially lately. The alternative is regional liberalization; worse in theory, but at least feasible. Over the last 15 years, there has been an unprecedented rise in the number of Regional Trade Agreements (hereafter RTAs). However, the consequences of RTAs on countries’ welfare are controversial. Are RTAs indeed a viable and desirable alternative to multilateral trade liberalization?1

In this empirical paper, we have assessed the effects of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) from a new vantage point, that of the stock market. We use a two-step methodology to analyze a new comprehensive daily data set that includes 1002 observations spanning 82 economies, 197 announcements and 122 RTAs between 1988 and 2009. First, we measure the effects of RTA news on the returns of national stock markets, after adjusting for international stock market movements in a variety of ways using an event-study methodology. Then we link these abnormal returns to features of both the RTA participants and those of the agreement itself.