تحقیق در مورد تاثیر صرفه جویی انرژی در سیاست های انرژی چین: 1982-2006

This paper summarizes the main energy policies of China from 1980, and divides them into three groups of policies. Two methods, with and without antitheses and linear regression, are created to evaluate the energy-saving effects of the energy policies. And the energy-saving effects of these three groups of energy policies of China are evaluated by the two methods, respectively. It is concluded that with and without antitheses is used to evaluate short-term effects and linear regression is used to evaluate long-term effects.

Since 1980s, economy grew rapidly in China, meanwhile energy consumption grew along with economy. Since 1982, energy intensity declined significantly. Energy intensity of China in 1982 was 2.96 tce per 104 RMB, and in 2006 was 1.16 tce per 104 RMB (energy intensity is that energy consumption divides GDP, and GDP are calculated at a constant price of 2006). But economic growth is increasingly depending on energy consumption. Elasticity ratio of energy consumption in the first years of 21st century is larger than that in the whole 1990s, as shown in Table 1. It indicates Chinese economy growth needs more energy. Because of the lack of energy, energy issues become more serious. And China has to import more energy. In 2006, China imported 19,453×104 ton oil, exported 2626.23×104 ton oil, and consumed 34,875.9×104 ton oil. Forty-eight percent of petrol consumption depended on import. The lack of energy will seriously influence the sustainable development of China.The Chinese government has created many energy policies to save energy. So it is necessary to evaluate the effects of these polices which will decrease the energy intensity.

This paper introduces two methods to evaluate the energy-saving effects of energy polices. It is found that the results calculated by different methods are different. The important assumption that energy intensity would be stably effected by other factors may cause the result calculated by with and without antitheses to contain effects induced by the other factors. The reason that energy-saving effects of P3 is not significant is that P3 has been implemented in only 2 years. It is too short to show the energy-saving effects. With and without antitheses is used to evaluate the short-term effect of the energy policy, for it is reasonable if the effects of the other factors are stable in a very short period; and linear regression model is used to evaluate the long-term effect of the energy policy, because it can discern the effects of all the factors effectively.