تجزیه و تحلیل اقتصادی از پویایی میزان مصرف گردشگری: یک رویکرد سیستم تقاضا با متغیر پارامتر زمان

This study considers the dynamics of the consumption behaviour of tourists from an economic perspective. The evolution of various demand elasticities is explored using a time-varying parameter almost ideal demand system model. The top four source markets for tourism in Hong Kong are examined, and three major tourist expenditure categories, including shopping, hotel accommodation and meals outside hotels, are investigated for each market. Elasticity analysis reveals different consumption trends and patterns across the source markets. The findings will serve as a useful reference for Hong Kong tourism-related industries and the government in their efforts to enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong as an international tourism destination.

International tourism plays an increasingly significant role in national and global economies. Tourist expenditure on shopping, hotel accommodation, food services, transport, visitor attractions, entertainment and so forth contributes substantially to developing and developed economies by generating gross domestic product (GDP), creating employment and providing socio-economic development opportunities. In 2008, more than 80 countries earned over US$1 billion from international tourism, with worldwide receipts reaching $944 billion (UNWTO, 2009). Given the importance of tourism consumption to a destination’s economy and its direct link to the performance of tourism-related businesses, tourism demand analysis has attracted increased attention from both academics and practitioners. It is of great importance to study the consumption behaviour of tourists from an economic perspective. The economic study of tourism is set within a well-established academic discipline, with a firm theoretical foundation and well-tested methodologies (Stabler, Papatheodorou, & Sinclair, 2010). In this discipline, the modelling of tourism demand “is one of the most developed and rigorous areas of the economic analysis of tourism” (Stabler et al., 2010, p. 425). In particular, demand elasticity analysis can be used to assess tourists’ consumption behaviour scientifically and to generate useful managerial implications for tourism-related industries and tourist destinations. Various demand elasticities, such as income elasticity, own-price elasticity and cross-price elasticity, can be calculated based on an estimated demand model to determine the sensitivity of tourist demand for tourism goods and services to changes in a tourist’s disposable income, the price of tourism products and the price of alternative consumption products. Such analyses can help tourism organisations to manage and promote a destination effectively in a competitive environment, and can guide tourism service providers in setting appropriate pricing strategies (Cortés-Jiménez, Durbarry, & Pulina, 2009). This study aims to provide new insights into the dynamics of Hong Kong inbound tourists’ consumption behaviour regarding a group of tourism goods and services and to evaluate the competitiveness of Hong Kong as an international tourist destination. The remainder of the paper is organised as follows. In the next section, a brief review of the relevant literature on tourism consumption is provided, with a particular focus on past empirical studies using the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model. Section 3 includes the discussion of various versions of the AIDS model, followed by an introduction to the empirical research design and data collection. The results of the empirical study are presented and discussed in detail in Section 4. The concluding remarks and managerial implications of the study’s findings are presented in Section 5.

Traditional constant parameter models can reveal average consumption patterns over the time span under consideration but cannot capture changes in consumption patterns over a specific period. To overcome this limitation, the present study combines the TVP estimation technique with a system-of-equations demand model to examine the evolution of tourists’ consumption behaviour patterns over time. This study enriches the literature by employing the TVP-EC-AIDS model for the first time to analyse how tourists allocate their budget amongst different tourism consumption categories. Based on the estimation results generated by the developed model, the expenditure, own-price and cross-price elasticities of the demand for shopping, hotel accommodation and meals outside hotels in Hong Kong are examined from a dynamic perspective. The empirical results show diverse expenditure patterns amongst tourists from four source markets: mainland China, Japan, Taiwan, and the United States. The findings provide new insights into the understanding of the dynamics of tourists’ consumption behaviour, and have some useful implications that may assist the relevant stakeholders in both the public and private sectors in Hong Kong to make strategic decisions regarding tourism planning and management. This study finds that the demand for shopping by mainland Chinese tourists is insensitive to their expenditure budget (or personal income), but has become relatively more sensitive in recent years. As Hong Kong is perceived to be a shopping paradise by mainland Chinese tourists, the retail sector has benefited greatly from this source market in recent years. It is thus important that both the business sector and the government make an active effort to sustain the attractiveness of Hong Kong’s retail businesses. For retail shops that target mainland Chinese tourists as their main customers, the delivery of high-quality goods and services is vital. Investment to improve the shopping environment and establish a fair and trusting relationship between customers and retail shops would further boost the demand for retail products by mainland Chinese tourists. Retailers are likely to be greatly affected by economic crises, as retail sales from tourism are closely related to the economic conditions in source markets. Thus, during economic downturns, it is important for the retail industry to adopt proper marketing and promotional strategies to attract tourists, particularly those from markets with low expenditure elasticity values. For example, long-haul markets for Hong Kong tourism, such as the United States, have suffered greatly from the recent economic recession, which has negatively affected the expenditure of inbound tourists from such markets. Tourist arrivals from mainland China, however, have continued to grow over the past two years. It is thus crucial for the retail sector in Hong Kong to target mainland Chinese tourists in their promotional and marketing efforts. The Hong Kong government has already played a part by launching several successful initiatives over the past two years to encourage shopping tourism from mainland China, such as the extension of the individual visit scheme to non-Guangdong residents who live in Shenzhen. Hotel accommodation is viewed by mainland Chinese tourists as a luxury, although less so in recent years. This may be due to gradual increases in personal income and the appreciation of the Chinese renminbi. According to the price elasticity estimates of the hotel industry, pricing strategies are more effective in attracting tourists from mainland China than those from the other three source markets under consideration. However, the implementation of price discrimination should be applied with caution, as applying different prices to different source markets can be perceived negatively. A better strategy would be to improve service quality with a view to increasing the level of tourist satisfaction, which tends to be more effective than pricing strategies in attracting tourists. This study also finds that meals outside hotels in Hong Kong are still perceived by mainland Chinese tourists to be quite expensive compared with meal prices in mainland China. To maintain the competitive advantages of Hong Kong as a popular international tourist destination, the government needs to formulate a broader range of effective tourism policies and continue to invest in public facilities for tourists. Given the sharp increase in the number of tourists from mainland China, new immigration ports for mainland Chinese tourists should be introduced. Additional efforts should also be made to simplify the entry procedure and to further extend the individual visit scheme to other cities in China. Distinct from tourists from other source markets, who usually visit Hong Kong by air, a large proportion of mainland Chinese tourists travel to Hong Kong by train and bus. The Hong Kong government should thus make further investments in land transportation to diversify the means of transport, shorten the travel time and reduce the transportation costs of mainland Chinese tourists. The findings indicate that US tourists increasingly view shopping in Hong Kong as a luxury. This implies that the competitive advantage of the retail sector in Hong Kong has weakened with respect to the US market. Clearly, the decrease in the disposable income of US tourists because of the recent financial crisis has led to a reduction in their expenditure on shopping in Hong Kong. The findings further reveal that Taiwanese tourists also view shopping more as a luxury than they did before. The expenditure elasticity in the Taiwanese hotel model declines over the sample period, whereas that of the Japanese market increases. Overall, the findings of this study suggest that different source markets for Hong Kong tourism display different types of consumption behaviour and different evolution patterns. This study provides empirical confirmation of the argument in the literature that tourism consumption is socially influenced and culturally framed (Sharpley, 1999). Tourism practitioners in Hong Kong need to closely monitor the dynamics of the consumption behaviour of tourists from different markets, and adopt flexible, market-oriented promotional plans and pricing strategies. It is also important that they review business strategies regularly and make the necessary adjustments in response to the dynamic nature of tourists’ consumption behaviour.