تجزیه و تحلیل اقتصادی تطبیقی ​​حمایت سیاست هایی برای PV انرژی خورشیدی محلی در ایالات متحده: انرژی اعتباری تجدیدپذیر خورشیدی (SREC) بالقوه

Numerous studies and market reports suggest that the solar photovoltaic markets rely heavily, if not entirely, upon governmental support policies at present. Unlike in other countries where these policies are enacted at a national level, the 50 states in the US pursue different policies in an attempt to foster the growth of renewable energy, and specifically solar photovoltaics. This paper provides an economic and financial analysis of the US federal and state level policies in states with solar-targeted policies that have Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SREC) markets. After putting a value on SRECs, this study further compares solar carve-outs with other incentives including the federal tax credit, net metering, and state personal tax credits. Our findings show that SREC markets can certainly be strong, with New Jersey, Delaware, and Massachusetts having the most potential. Despite their strong potential as effective renewable policies, the lack of a guaranteed minimum and the uncertainty attached are major drawbacks of SREC markets. However, the leveraging of this high value offers hope that the policies will indeed stimulate residential solar photovoltaic markets.

Among many factors driving global Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) demand, this study focuses on government policy, specifically focusing on financial incentive policies implemented in support of SPV. SPV is a high cost renewable resource, and therefore has lagged behind other sources of renewable energy, so subsidies and incentives are considered among the key drivers of global SPV demand ( Wiser et al., 2010). The US energy market is different from other nations in that energy is primarily regulated at a state level or lower rather than on a fully national scale. Likewise, electrical energy companies in the US operate at a state or regional level, not typically on a fully national scale. Consequently, each state functions effectively as a separate energy market, and thus each state is thereby a separate SPV market. Given the web of different incentives each state provides, it is difficult to quantify how much each different policy affects the SPV industry. Many states have been passing renewable energy support policies over the past decade, with the most common method being a Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) ( Wiser et al., 2010). Additionally, states specifically target SPV by creating solar set-asides or carve-outs within the RPS specifically requiring a percentage of energy to be derived from SPV. One of the most common ways to enforce set-asides is through Solar Renewable Energy Certificates or Solar Renewable Energy Credits (SREC) markets, nine of which are in place as of July 2011 ( DSIRE). SREC markets are fresh in the US, and subsequently very few studies have evaluated them in depth. Previous studies explore the value of financial incentives in the US SPV market, but intentionally leave out valuing SRECs due to their speculative nature (Barbose et al., 2011 and Wiser et al., 2010). This study attempts to place a quantifiable value on SRECs, and thus paint a better picture of the US SPV financial incentive landscape. There have been many attempts to measure the success of government policies on renewable energy sources (Buckman, 2011, Menz and Vachon, 2006 and Yin and Powers, 2010). One examination performs a comparative financial and economic analysis of each individual European nations’ package of financial incentives for residential photovoltaics, estimating Net Present Value (NPV), Discounted Cash Flows (DCF), and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of policies ( Dusonchet and Telaretti, 2010a and Dusonchet and Telaretti, 2010b). A comprehensive study of incentives in the US uses the Present Value per Watt-Capacity (Present Value/Wp), providing a metric to measure and compare the different incentives ( Barbose et al., 2011). The analysis mentions the value of SREC policies, but does not go in great detail about SRECs, as they are considered too difficult to measure. Thus, this study intends to provide insight into the newer SREC markets that populate US RPS policies. Through financial analysis using NPV, DCF, IRR, and Present Value/Wp, we intend to answer the following questions: 1. Which of the US states with solar carve-outs that include SREC policies have the most robust overall state-level package of incentives for residential SPV? 2. What is the value of SREC markets to residential SPV, and which SREC markets are strong enough to be as effective as other financial incentives: Net Metering, or personal tax credits? The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we present a succinct overview of the many different financial incentive policies in the US at the state and federal level. Then, a comprehensive overview of SREC markets follows, providing a state-by-state breakdown of US SREC markets in place as of October 2011. We apply conventional financial metrics, including Present Value, NPV, DCF, and IRR, to compare states’ financial incentives. Then, Present Value per Wp compares SREC value versus the other policies. Section 5 presents the findings, and Section 6 is a conclusion.

This paper has presented a comparative analysis of the supporting mechanisms in the different states with SREC policies. The strength of each policy varies based on the size of the incentive, cost of residential SPV, electric energy price, and solar insolation. In the northeast, states where the energy price is higher are better suited for residential SPV, as they require less incentive beyond net metering. Meanwhile, in Ohio where the energy price is low, residential SPV is less attractive, and while the incentives make it more attractive, it is not enough to put residential SPV in competition with other forms of electricity production, within the first 15 years, at least before considering rebates and other incentives not covered in this analysis. This paper further delves into SREC markets and measures the financial impact they can have on residential SPV. SREC prices are inherently difficult to value due to their changing price, but based on current conditions, the potential of SRECs are undeniable. In an attempt to place a value on SRECs, price floors would be ideal, and they are emerging in the form of aggregators that offer contracts for residences’ SRECs. The true value of SRECs for residential SPV is in leveraging the future income through these aggregators. This value to date is roughly equivalent to or just below that of the federal tax credit This comparative analysis has helped to: • Assess the impact of incentives on residential SPV in states with solar set-asides and SREC policies; • Gain insight into the intricacies of various SREC enforcement laws in the US; • Place a quantifiable value on SREC policies to better express the worth and impact of these policies on residential SPV.